SCW Thursday Update

#msg6020388SCW Thursday Update 👉I really hope we see some decent rainfall out of all this but I'm a little concerned that the majority of this will fall to our west. (Time will tell) 👉This afternoon, you'll see a line of storms heading this way from the west but I don't expect those to hold together all the way to Harris County. 👉Our best rainfall chances will be FRIDAY EVENING through SUNDAY MORNING. 👉Since these showers are tropical in nature, they may produce briefly heavy rainfall but flooding does NOT look to be a concern for the Houston area. 👉If the forecast pans out as expected, expect 1-4" of rainfall by the weekends end. 👉A cool front arrives next week - nothing that will require a change in wardrobe change - but we'll see sunny days in the 80s for most of next week with nights in the upper 60s to low 70s. 🌀Tropical development is possible in the Southern Gulf (or Bay of Campeche) next week. If this does form, it is expected to move NE & away from the Texas coast. 👌 *********************** From Space City Weather : Heavy rains to remain west of Houston today, but weekend still looks soggy. Eric Berger · Thursday, October 1, 2026 6:53 AM 👉IN BRIEF: *In today's post we provide an overview of Houston's rain chances over the next four days, which will be elevated. *Although there's the potential for some heavy rain, we're not too concerned about flooding at this time. *A modest cool front arrives early next week. 👉WET PATTERN OVERVIEW - *An upper-level low, in concert with the remains of Hurricane Polo, is bringing heavy rains to the Texas Hill Country this morning, and these storms are moving toward the I-35 corridor. *This system will progress eastward across Texas, but it should stall later today to the west of Houston, near the Brazos Valley. *Several inches of rain are possible from this system in Central Texas, but the Houston region should NOT see major effects aside from the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms today. *For us, the best rain chances will come from FRIDAY EVENING through SUNDAY MORNING as a weak frontal boundary slowly trudges through the area and stalls near the coast. *With ample moisture this setup will bring the potential for heavy rainfall into the region during this time period, especially along the slow-moving boundary. *Whether this rain falls just inland, or off the coast, will depend on precisely where the boundary stalls. *All in all, through Sunday, most of the Houston region should pick up 1 to 4 inches of rain. *We are not planning to issue a flood stage warning on our flood scale at this time, but we will continue to monitor things closely. 👉THURSDAY - *The last day of September was another hot one, with high temperatures in the mid-90s for inland areas of Houston. Phew! *Highs should peak in the lower 90s today across the city, and then after today or Friday, we should be able to say sayonara to the 90s for awhile. *As noted above, the heavy rainfall due to Polo's remnants should stay west of Harris and surrounding counties. *However we will see scattered to widespread showers today, and the heaviest cells may quickly produce 1 or 2 inches of rain in isolated areas. *Most locations will see considerably less, however. *We'll see some gusty southerly winds again later today. *Overnight lows will drop into the upper 70s, and rain chances will slacken, but not go away entirely. 👉FRIDAY, SATURDAY, and SUNDAY - *It will be a soggy weekend, yes. *At the same time, it's not going to rain everywhere, all the time. *There will definitely be breaks in the showers, so if you're planning to attend a festival, or a college football game, or something else, do not abandon all hope. *Nevertheless our region will see its best rain chances in weeks, and there will be more clouds than sunshine. *Rain totals will vary widely, but most areas should get 1 to 4 inches. *What concerns me most is the potential for these showers, tropical in nature, to produce briefly heavy rainfall. *But again, aside from possibly the immediate coast, we don't expect too much of that behavior over the Houston region. *If our expectations change, of course, we'll update here. *Temperatures will gradually push downward, with highs in the upper 80s on Friday dropping to the mid-80s on Sunday, *Overnight lows will range from the upper to lower 70s. 👉NEXT WEEK - *A slightly stronger cool front is really in the cards for early next week, likely arriving Monday night. *This should lead us to sunny days in the 80s for most of next week, with nights in the 60s or lower 70s. *Humidity will be lower, but as this is still one of our early fronts don't expect miracles on that score. *Still, it won't be Houston-like houmidity, and after our long summer it's going to feel fairly pleasant out there. Just don't expect sweater weather just yet. 🌀 TROPICS 🌀 *You may start to see some noise about tropical development in the Southern Gulf or Bay of Campeche next week, and some of our models are showing the potential for modest development there. *We don't have any real concerns about this in Texas, however, as any systems that develop there next week will most likely move to the northeast, away from the state. ************************ 👉WEEKEND TRAVEL - Keep a close eye on the forecast if you're heading towards San Antonio/Austin/Dallas this weekend. As much as 6-10 inches of rainfall is possible in the red shaded areas on the map below.

#msg6020388SCW Thursday Update 👉I really hope we see some decent rainfall out of all this but I'm a little concerned that the majority of this will fall to our west. (Time will tell) 👉This afternoon, you'll see a line of storms heading this way from the west but I don't expect those to hold together all the way to Harris County. 👉Our best rainfall chances will be FRIDAY EVENING through SUNDAY MORNING. 👉Since these showers are tropical in nature, they may produce briefly heavy rainfall but flooding does NOT look to be a concern for the Houston area. 👉If the forecast pans out as expected, expect 1-4" of rainfall by the weekends end. 👉A cool front arrives next week - nothing that will require a change in wardrobe change - but we'll see sunny days in the 80s for most of next week with nights in the upper 60s to low 70s. 🌀Tropical development is possible in the Southern Gulf (or Bay of Campeche) next week. If this does form, it is expected to move NE & away from the Texas coast. 👌 *********************** From Space City Weather : Heavy rains to remain west of Houston today, but weekend still looks soggy. Eric Berger · Thursday, October 1, 2026 6:53 AM 👉IN BRIEF: *In today's post we provide an overview of Houston's rain chances over the next four days, which will be elevated. *Although there's the potential for some heavy rain, we're not too concerned about flooding at this time. *A modest cool front arrives early next week. 👉WET PATTERN OVERVIEW - *An upper-level low, in concert with the remains of Hurricane Polo, is bringing heavy rains to the Texas Hill Country this morning, and these storms are moving toward the I-35 corridor. *This system will progress eastward across Texas, but it should stall later today to the west of Houston, near the Brazos Valley. *Several inches of rain are possible from this system in Central Texas, but the Houston region should NOT see major effects aside from the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms today. *For us, the best rain chances will come from FRIDAY EVENING through SUNDAY MORNING as a weak frontal boundary slowly trudges through the area and stalls near the coast. *With ample moisture this setup will bring the potential for heavy rainfall into the region during this time period, especially along the slow-moving boundary. *Whether this rain falls just inland, or off the coast, will depend on precisely where the boundary stalls. *All in all, through Sunday, most of the Houston region should pick up 1 to 4 inches of rain. *We are not planning to issue a flood stage warning on our flood scale at this time, but we will continue to monitor things closely. 👉THURSDAY - *The last day of September was another hot one, with high temperatures in the mid-90s for inland areas of Houston. Phew! *Highs should peak in the lower 90s today across the city, and then after today or Friday, we should be able to say sayonara to the 90s for awhile. *As noted above, the heavy rainfall due to Polo's remnants should stay west of Harris and surrounding counties. *However we will see scattered to widespread showers today, and the heaviest cells may quickly produce 1 or 2 inches of rain in isolated areas. *Most locations will see considerably less, however. *We'll see some gusty southerly winds again later today. *Overnight lows will drop into the upper 70s, and rain chances will slacken, but not go away entirely. 👉FRIDAY, SATURDAY, and SUNDAY - *It will be a soggy weekend, yes. *At the same time, it's not going to rain everywhere, all the time. *There will definitely be breaks in the showers, so if you're planning to attend a festival, or a college football game, or something else, do not abandon all hope. *Nevertheless our region will see its best rain chances in weeks, and there will be more clouds than sunshine. *Rain totals will vary widely, but most areas should get 1 to 4 inches. *What concerns me most is the potential for these showers, tropical in nature, to produce briefly heavy rainfall. *But again, aside from possibly the immediate coast, we don't expect too much of that behavior over the Houston region. *If our expectations change, of course, we'll update here. *Temperatures will gradually push downward, with highs in the upper 80s on Friday dropping to the mid-80s on Sunday, *Overnight lows will range from the upper to lower 70s. 👉NEXT WEEK - *A slightly stronger cool front is really in the cards for early next week, likely arriving Monday night. *This should lead us to sunny days in the 80s for most of next week, with nights in the 60s or lower 70s. *Humidity will be lower, but as this is still one of our early fronts don't expect miracles on that score. *Still, it won't be Houston-like houmidity, and after our long summer it's going to feel fairly pleasant out there. Just don't expect sweater weather just yet. 🌀 TROPICS 🌀 *You may start to see some noise about tropical development in the Southern Gulf or Bay of Campeche next week, and some of our models are showing the potential for modest development there. *We don't have any real concerns about this in Texas, however, as any systems that develop there next week will most likely move to the northeast, away from the state. ************************ 👉WEEKEND TRAVEL - Keep a close eye on the forecast if you're heading towards San Antonio/Austin/Dallas this weekend. As much as 6-10 inches of rainfall is possible in the red shaded areas on the map below.