SCW weather update 5/20

SCW weather update 5/20Looks like we have some real flooding concerns on Saturday & Sunday so keep that in mind when you're out & about for the holiday. From Space City Weather:Overnight rains are just the beginning of a wet pattern that should peak over Memorial Day weekend. Eric Berger · Wednesday, May 20, 2026 6:42 AM👉 IN BRIEF:(Tuesday night's rains were mostly manageable, but they are just the first round of storms that our region will experience over the next week.
🚨 We now believe the heaviest rain is likely to come this weekend, when flooding concerns will be greatest.👉 This is just the beginning, not the end -*In recent years Houston has often experienced a pattern in which we will see one or two days of rain before a front moves through, or high pressure sets in, or something else happens to turn off the spigot.
*Then we'll have a few weeks of sunny skies and no rain.
*Only rarely have we seen periods of several days of moderate to heavy rainfall as we are now experiencing.*The ongoing rounds of storms that will rotate into Houston through Memorial Day weekend, and possibly beyond, is probably due to the early phases of an El Niño that appears to be developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
*This generally promotes a wetter pattern across Texas. This El Niño is likely to peak later this fall or over the winter months, and based on recent model forecasts it could be a rather strong El Niño.
*So maybe we will see more prolonged periods of rain, and fewer prolonged periods of dry weather.
*In any case, the rounds of showers and thunderstorms that passed through the Houston region overnight are likely to continue into early next week.
*It won't rain all the time, but for most locations it probably will rain at some point each day.
*Saturday and Sunday look to have the best chance of precipitation, which will probably spoil a lot of Memorial Day weekend plans. 👉 WEDNESDAY -*The storms that rolled through over night brought between 0.5 and 3 inches of rain to most locations.
*As expected, all streams, creeks, and bayous are well within their banks this morning.
*Flooding will become more likely this weekend, as rain accumulations stack up, and for this reason we issued a Stage 2 flood alert on Tuesday, and plan to hold it in place through the holiday weekend.
*Light to moderate rains are ongoing this morning, and the overall trend is one toward weakening rather than strengthening storms.
*Activity will shift southward over the next couple of hours, and I expect the rains to end entirely across the Houston metro area by or before noon.
*This afternoon we may briefly see some partly sunny skies, with high temperatures pushing into the mid-80s or so.
*Lows tonight will fall into the mid-70s. As for rains,
*I expect low-end chances through the evening hours, so if you have outdoor plans for later today I would be cautiously optimistic.👉 THURSDAY & FRIDAY -*By early Thursday, with our atmosphere recharged, we are likely to see another rain-making disturbance moving into the region from the west.
*I don't know whether these storms will be as widespread or active as what we experienced Tuesday night, but they definitely will have the potential to produce another 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.
*Another, similar, round of storms will be possible at some point on Friday.
*Highs on both days will be in the low- to mid-80s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
*Again, there are likely to be extended periods when it is not raining, so there will be some time to get outside and enjoy the moderate temperatures (for May).👉 MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND -*This weekend often kicks off summer in Houston, with sunny skies and our first temperatures in the low to mid 90s - Well, not this year.
*A surge of moisture should lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms on both days, with some of these showers producing very heavy rainfall.
🚨 By this point we may see rain accumulations from storms this week pushing up to 4 to 8 inches for some locations, so we'll be tracking creeks and bayous closely.
*Harris County has an excellent tool for you do to this for locations near you.
*The National Weather Service also has a good resource for tracking river flooding in our region.
*Rain chances by Monday may drop to 70 percent.
*Highs will be in the low 80s, probably, and if we continue to get morning storms there may be some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon hours.
*Basically, you'll need to continue to remain weather aware.👉 NEXT WEEK -*After Memorial Day rain chances will probably fall back some next week, but we probably are still looking at something like at least 50 percent daily.
*This, as well as ongoing partly cloudy skies, should help keep temperatures in check for the remainder of the month - which is to say we might not see 90 degrees again until at least early June.