Tropics update
Tropics update
Tropics update With high pressure dominating Houston's weather, what's going on in the tropics? Eric Berger · Wednesday, June 24, 2026 6:56 AM 👉 IN BRIEF - *We look at what's happening in the Atlantic tropics; not much.
*More interesting talk about the AI model that performed exceptionally well during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
*Forecast update for the week. 👉 TROPICS UPDATE and AI MODEL REVIEW - *The short answer is that the Atlantic tropics are quiet. This is often the case for late July, when Atlantic sea surface temperatures are still warming toward their peak later this summer, and wind shear is fairly high.
*The other factor working against tropical storms and hurricanes at this time of year is Saharan dust, and there is plenty of it across the Atlantic basin right now.
*I would expect the Atlantic tropics to remain quiet through the end of June, and probably at least a week into July, if not longer. 👉 AI HURRICANE MODELS - *Earlier this year the National Hurricane Center published its annual verification report for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season: 🖇 LINK to NWS report - 👇 www.nhc.noaa.gov/ver ification/verify3.sh tml *One of the questions in this report answers concerns the performance of the various forecast models for the "track" of tropical systems.
*Last year, there was a clear winner - Google's DeepMind model which is based on artificial intelligence.
*For forecast periods of 12 hours to 4 days out, the model's performance was better even than that of the National Hurricane Center and various consensus models. It's quite striking. 
*Our friend and colleague Michael Lowry has an excellent post explaining all of this on his "Eye on the Tropics" Substack, and it's worth a read to put the performance of this AI model into perspective. 🖇 LINK to article - 👇 www.nhc.noaa.gov/ver ification/verify3.sh tml *Speaking for Matt and myself, we used Google's model as part of our suite of tools last year, and obviously will continue to do so.
*I'm eager to see if it is a top performer again this year. ........................ FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK: 👉WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, and FRIDAY - *Back in Houston, our forecast has not changed much. Or rather, at all.
*A fairly strong ridge of high pressure remains in control of our weather for the time being.
*This high will bring us mostly sunny skies, humidity, and hot temperatures.
*Highs for the rest of this week will be in the low to mid-90s, with plenty of humidity.
*Overnight lows will generally drop into the mid to upper-70s.
*Rain chances are basically zero.
*Winds will be calm in the morning, with moderately gusty conditions (up to 20 mph) during the afternoon. 👉SATURDAY and SUNDAY - *Are we expecting much change in the weather this weekend? In short, no.
*Perhaps we'll see nighttime temps 1 to 2 degrees warmer, but it will be difficult to notice much difference. 👉NEXT WEEK - *Our sunny and hot weather continues into next week, but by Wednesday or so, some of our forecast models are indicating a turn toward a more typical summertime pattern, with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze.
*However, when we get into these persistent high pressure patterns it can be difficult to break them, so we're offering no guarantees here.
Txbutterfly, malpalface and mutton + 2 more reacted*More interesting talk about the AI model that performed exceptionally well during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
*Forecast update for the week.
*The other factor working against tropical storms and hurricanes at this time of year is Saharan dust, and there is plenty of it across the Atlantic basin right now.
*I would expect the Atlantic tropics to remain quiet through the end of June, and probably at least a week into July, if not longer.
*Last year, there was a clear winner - Google's DeepMind model which is based on artificial intelligence.
*For forecast periods of 12 hours to 4 days out, the model's performance was better even than that of the National Hurricane Center and various consensus models. It's quite striking.
*I'm eager to see if it is a top performer again this year.
*A fairly strong ridge of high pressure remains in control of our weather for the time being.
*This high will bring us mostly sunny skies, humidity, and hot temperatures.
*Highs for the rest of this week will be in the low to mid-90s, with plenty of humidity.
*Overnight lows will generally drop into the mid to upper-70s.
*Rain chances are basically zero.
*Winds will be calm in the morning, with moderately gusty conditions (up to 20 mph) during the afternoon.
*Perhaps we'll see nighttime temps 1 to 2 degrees warmer, but it will be difficult to notice much difference.
*However, when we get into these persistent high pressure patterns it can be difficult to break them, so we're offering no guarantees here.