Beryl - FRI 4AM UPDATE PG 10

My little power station has come in just in time. I hope nothing happens, but if it does, I will be ready…well more so than before lol

Ruger5 :
I am ok with rain--just not all at once. A good soaking rain would be nice.

Weathergirl5 : Same ….and yes it would be!

6pm TUESDAY Space City Weather seems to be a little miffed at people questioning their forecast - but people are scared. I think they need to really think about that. People are questioning them because they are the only ones saying "No worries!," ya know? And I think that's fair. ...................Jamaica next in line as category 5 Hurricane Beryl plows across the Caribbean (UPDATED)July 2, 2024 at 10:34 am by Matt Lanza
(5:30 PM CT update): *Beryl is beginning to feel the shear as laid out in our post below, and it is now a category 4 storm with 155 mph winds.
*For folks in Jamaica, this offers modest comfort, as a major hurricane is going to make landfall (or come close) there tomorrow. *Little has changed with respect to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, so reference the post below on that.I need to say some words to people in Houston. *We are getting blasted by a few of you for apparently underselling the real threat from Beryl.
*If you read the post below, we've taken a very down the middle, neutral stance on the storm, explaining how it is still likely to pass to the south, though if it were to not weaken as much as forecast over the next 36 hours, it could come a bit farther to the north.
*We even went so far as to show the European ensemble models with the distribution of some closer to southeast Texas and others in Mexico, and we explained how this could be and what to watch for. *I'm not quite sure what isn't resonating with some people, but those are the facts. *Here is a look at today's most recent European ensemble members, 51 of them:*Of the 51 members, 5 of them or 9.8 percent bring Beryl into the Houston area or Louisiana.
*This is down from 8 earlier this morning. *If you would rather the GFS Ensemble, 4 of the ensemble members, or about 13 percent bring it to Texas or Louisiana, the same as earlier.
*Roughly one tropical model (the HWRF) brings Beryl to Houston. The HWRF historically would handle a weakening tropical system poorly, so I would be apt to discount it in my weighting as a meteorologist with a number of years of experience tracking and forecasting these things.*I write all this to say: No one is saying to ignore Beryl. But, look, those statistics of objective model data imply that the risk to Houston remains…pretty low! Should we continue to watch this? Absolutely! And I laid out the case of how this could become more problematic in Texas below. So, let's just take a breath and watch what happens over the next 24 to 36 hours.

elguapo : They are all different and based on different outcomes & scenarios. Bottom line? We are NOT out of the woods.

Y'all aren't out of the woods , but I don't think it's time to rush to the stores unless you've not done the annual prep.This storm has been historic so far and has done some out of character things. I watched Levi's report on Tropical tidbits. He does a great job of explaining all the players and how they are interacting. I encourage you to go and watch the report. What he has to say backs up Space City/ Eyewall. Yea some of the models look scary but the models are computer generated guesses. All the sites I've read say be prepared, wait and see. I think Thurs will be the day when the forecasts become clear. If you've not done your basic prep I encourage to do it. If I were still there this would be the time for me to start watching NHC forecast discussions when they come out along with Tropical Tidbits, Space City/ Eyewall along with our own fabulous StormChaser. I might be tempted to top off gas.

HURRICANE BERYL UPDATE - 2AM - Wednesday 3rd July 2024. *Wind speed: 145mph. *Max gusts: 185mph.
*Pressure: 946mb. *Despite remaining an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, Beryl has weakened slightly overnight. *Jamaica needs to be prepared given this situation.THIS is a good explanation of the high pressure system and it's effects on where Beryl goes. *A NOAA Upper air sampling mission was completed last night around Beryl with 37 dropsonde released. This information will be available for the overnight guidance runs which should help with track & intensity forecasting.

4am update *Hurricane Beryl, with sustained winds of 145 mph, is about 185 miles east/southeast of Kingston, Jamaica this morning in the Caribbean.
"Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica beginning this afternoon and in the Cayman Islands early tomorrow.*Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late tomorrow, where hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued.
*It will then emerge into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend as a tropical storm, and NHC forecasts the final landfall Sunday evening at a point just SOUTH of BROWNSVILLE, Texas as a minimal, category one hurricane.........Storm #2️⃣*We also note there is a tropical wave (Invest 96L) trailing Beryl, approaching the Windward Islands. At this point the chance of development is only 20 percent over the next seven days thanks to dry air around the system, and upwelling from Beryl.The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

Forecast track from the National Hurricane Center. The forecaster on duty wrote, "there is SIGNIFICANT uncertainty in the 4-and 5-day forecast points." Please keep this in mind in terms of basic preparations. It's still a waiting game to see how it interacts with Jamaica today so tonight and especially tomorrow should tell us a lot.

@Getoffmylawn1 : What kind did you get?

Zokomo : I got the Anker Solix C1000.

@Getoffmylawn1 : Thank you! I've been wanting to get one

From Jeff Lindner 7/3/24 AM UPDATE BERYL
145MPH WINDS
165 GUSTS. *Powerful hurricane Beryl heading for Jamaica where significant impacts are imminent with a Hurricane watch for the eastern Yucatán and warning for the Cayman Islands.*Beryl is still a strong hurricane this morning but shear IS impacting the hurricane and gradual weakening IS occurring. *There have been no significant changes overnight with track guidance. The questions that still linger are: -How does Beryl responds to a trough over the center plains this weekend once in the Gulf of Mexico?
-How strong is Beryl once in the Gulf?➡️ There are some indications this morning that the expected wind shear in the Gulf may be weaker allowing Beryl to become a bit stronger (and more north) so we will need to watch for any trends in that direction over the next couple of days.*Persons and interests in the western Gulf should be monitoring forecast closely for any changes into late this week.*Persons along the S TX coast south of Kingsville need to have their hurricane plan in place and be ready to enact that plan by this Friday.

Forecast For Hurricane Beryl Continues To Trend South Of HoustonEric Berger · Wednesday, July 3, 2024 4:31 PMIn brief: The forecast for Hurricane Beryl and Houston remains more or less on track, which is to say the storm is still expected to go far enough south that it will not produce serious wind and surge impacts in Houston. We continue to watch the possibility of tropical rain next week.Just a quick update on Wednesday afternoon to point out that our forecast from this morning on Hurricane Beryl, which currently as 140 mph sustained winds and is lashing Jamaica, is more or less on point. In fact, the data we've seen today from our most-trusted models continues to provide confidence in a track predicted by the National Hurricane Center. Their outlook brings a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane to the northern Mexico coast, 50 to 100 miles south of Texas, on Sunday evening or Monday morning.spacecityweather.com /forecast-for-hurric ane-beryl-continues- to-trend-south-