Beryl - FRI 4AM UPDATE PG 10

teatime : So true. I was trying to be humorous and hoping that those storms that raise cane would just go to an unpopulated area of Mexico and water the cactus.

Just watched a weather report just now that says we likely will have a Chris Cane on the heels of Beryl. Also that the high pressure dome setting up over Florida could bring Beryl northwestward towards……dare I say? The northern gulf. But NOT florida. That high pressure done will keep them safe this round…….so they sayin'.

teatime : Yes . . . and then the misery of dealing with FEMA and home insurance companies.

Still very early, but most models adjusting the path south.

From Jeff Lindner:Sunday 3pm -A few comments on Beryl:*There is uncertainty on any ultimate track in the Gulf of Mexico.
*Several factors will be in play in 5-7 days including:
-Where and how organized Beryl enters the southern Gulf
-Where and how strong a ridge of high pressure is over the southern US
-How much this high pressure is weakened by a trough over the northern US. *At this point, I cannot answer any of these questions with much certainty.*I do not know if Beryl will impact Texas directly or indirectly at this time.
*We will probably will not have a decent idea on this until Wed or Thur.
*Deterministic model guidance is going to vary from run to run and model to model so it is best to look at the ensembles for any trends at these longer time ranges. ➡️ There is some "scary" model images being shared of deterministic guidance…I would ignore. *The current most likely scenario is a track toward eastern Mexico but there is a non zero chance of direct or indirect impacts along the Texas coast.*What should you do**Monitor weather forecast from trusted sources at least daily through next week on the progress of Beryl
*Review your hurricane plan and make sure kits are fully stocked. It will be a long season!................Hurricane Beryl -
Category 3 - 130mph winds with 150mph gusts as of Sun @ 2pm. This could possibly make it to Cat. 5 hurricane status before it passes over the Yucatán Peninsula & reaches the southern Gulf. Category One: 74 - 95 mph.
Category Two: 96 - 110 mph.
Category Three: 111 - 130 mph.
➡️ Category Four: 131 - 155 mph.
Category Five: 155mph & above.

notfromhere : The time for us to really watch is when it enters the southern Gulf. If it continues west into Mexico, we're good - but - if it gets pulled north because of this trough breaking down the high pressure system, we could have issues depending on where it heads. It wouldn't take long over the Gulf for it to rapidly intensity again so we absolutely do not want this dude coming north. 🌀How strong the ridge of high pressure is over the southern US and how much this high pressure is weakened by a trough over the northern US will all be factors in the track. We should know by Wed or Thurs what this will do.

StormChaser : Great info, as always!

I don't think people understand that "the models" are just computer guesses at how the storm will act and where it will go based on data points that are entered into it. Many people live and die by each model run.Already with this storm we have seen that Mother Nature doesn't play by the rules
"Usually" weaker storms will track South and stronger ones track North. Beryl was expected to run over Hispaniola and get beaten up by land/ mountains. And here we have a Cat 4 skirting South of Hispaniola . Either way Beryl was " predicted" to strengthen and then weaken either by sheer or land interaction and yet here we are- a Cat 4 storm. There's no point in pouring every run- it's just not accurate-it's like playing pin the tail on the donkey.
I didn't really go into serious prep mode until we were in the "cone of uncertainty ". BUT at this point if I was still there I'd be doing this
Hubs would pull out the generator and start it ( he did this the 1st of every month). Check the gas and Stabil supply and fill up any empty tanks.
Check grilling supplies- charcoal and little propane cans
I'd double check my hurricane supplies to make sure I got it all back in Mar. when I would normally start stockpiling.
Start making a grocery list in case
Fill the cars with gas I prep because the insane chaos of panic before the storm makes me crazy. 2 days before a storm hits- I'm done and I stay the heck home! 🤣Rita was my first official storm and I thought I'd lose my mind watching people panicStay tuned to the NHC, Space City, Tropical Tidbits and our own StormChaser.

I guess one could say it's BERYLing its way toward Mexico???....

Ugh.

StormChaser :
Now now- don't go there- yet- anything can happen in week!! Just have to wait and see!

This going to be a long hurricane season!! Early next week going to replenish water and batteries!!

Dear lord I will never co.plain about winter again! This is the worst part about living in the gulf coast. My anxiety is not build to withstand this

StormChaser :
It's too early to stress; time to prepare.