Friday storms - 5:30AM post.

Friday storms - 5:30AM post. I don't usually post the daily discussion from The National Weather Service but I wanted to share this early because the drive home today will likely be pretty ugly. I will post Space City Weather's morning update when they do, which should be around 7am. Greatest threats:
*Large hail (up to golf ball size is possible) 🧊⛳️
*Gusty winds of 60+mph. 🌬
*Localized flash street flooding potential if these storms set up & train over the same areas for long periods of time. 💧
*Frequent lightning. ⚡️🗺 Location: All of SE Texas but especially the more north and west you go from downtown. 🕐 Timing: After 12pm through the early evening. (1pm-6pm looks fairly active)........................................National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TXArea Forecast & Discussion4:08 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025SHORT TERM; Today through tonight. Issued at 3:59 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025*SE Texas will see very active weather today from a growing risk of severe storms, especially this afternoon.
*Now throughout the
late morning hours should be mostly calm, save for a few sparse showers and the occasional isolated storm. (This will be driven by a passing shortwave, which can be seen in water vapor imagery near south Texas.)
*As already mentioned, any activity this morning should be very limited due high stability. Still, one strong storm has seemingly pulled itself together near south Texas, and may push into our area early today before dissipating.
*The greater severe weather threat begins to emerge during the late morning/early afternoon (lets say around 10 AM or so) as inhibition/capping erodes from daytime heating.
*Simultaneously, we'll see a swath of PVA push into the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area, preceding an approaching cold front from the north.
*We'll slowly see thunderstorm activity trend upwards from here on as PVA strengthens while instability and shear pick up.
*A few discrete/organized storms may develop ahead of the front, though it will largely be confined towards the northern half of the CWA initially.
➡️ The cold front should start to push into southeast Texas during the mid/late afternoon, likely some around or after 1 PM.
➡️ As it does, we'll see thunderstorm activity greatly increase and begin to
propagate southward with the cold front as a broken line/clusters of storms.
➡️ Updraft helicity reaches its apex during this period,
indicating this to be the main timeframe of focus for severe weather threat.
➡️ Additionally, the slow southward propagation of these storms with an easterly storm motion also suggest the potential for training storms.
*Model guidance shows the severe weather threat
decreasing late tonight as instability decreases, with the main line of storms pushing offshore around midnight.
*By this point, the severe weather threat should be over, with only lingering showers persisting into Saturday morning.🚨 SPC has most of SE Texas under an Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for severe weather today. 🚨 Simultaneously, WPC has most of the area
under a Slight (level 2/4) Risk for excessive rainfall. 🚨 All severe
weather hazards will be on the table for today, though damaging
wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will become the primary
focus later in the afternoon as this line of storms pushes south.🚗 With all this in mind, make sure to have multiple ways of
receiving warnings..…………………PVA - Positive Vorticity Advection: Advection of higher values of vorticity into an area, which often is associated with upward motion (lifting) of the air. PVA typically is found in advance of disturbances aloft (i.e., shortwaves), and is a property which often enhances the potential for thunderstorm development.