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Early hurricane forecast This is a post from Frank Billingsley. I'm not a huge fan of his, but I do follow WeatherBELL & their hurricane forecasts. This is their just released hurricane forecast for 2024. Obviously, take it for what it's worth right now, but the science behind it makes sense. In other words, it could be a bumpy summer! 🌀 ............. Weatherbell, a private forecasting company, has just released their hurricane forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. *What sticks out to me is how many named storms they are predicting and how many are major hurricanes. *You can also see last year how this compares to average. The thinking is that this season will be like the seasons of 2005, 2007, and 2020. 2005 - 29 storms, 15 hurricanes, more than 3,000 deaths, and nearly $160 billion in damages. 2007 - While only 15 storms formed this year, the track of the storms is what WeatherBELL is seeing and concerning for 2024. 2020 - Record breaking 30 named storms with 11 landfalls. Big impacts this year WeatherBELL is concerned with the coastlines from Charleston, South Carolina, to Brownsville, Texas. Mexico, as well as the Caribbean Islands and Windward Islands, are all under threat this year. What is more concerning is the ACE, accumulated cyclone energy. This is how strong the storms that form will be. Two to 3 times the average is how often ACE is predicting the storms that form will be strong. One of the reasons WeatherBELL is seeing an incredibly active year is the transition from El Nino to La Nina. La Nina summers favor a more active hurricane season. There are several other factors to their forecast, but because they are a private company, the rest of their information is behind a paywall. From Frank Billingsley Wednesday on Frank's Weather or Not Blog, he wrote, an early hurricane heads-up for Houston and Texas. What was fascinating to me was how much this matched the impact map from WeatherBELL. For 20 years, engineer Dale Link has put out a landfall map, and last year was a very good forecast. What do we do with this information? The important thing to keep in mind even if there are 30 storms that form and we have 8 major hurricanes, it doesn't mean we'll get hit in Houston. But like any hurricane season we should be prepared. It only takes one storm to turn your life upside down. I would suggest evaluating your home insurance and flood insurance policies and making sure no matter what happens, your home is covered. A final note The WeatherBELL forecast is created by Joe Bastardi. He is a close friend of mine. When I started at KPRC 2 in 2003, he worked at Accuweather. We had a partnership with them, and Joe and I had many conversations about why storms would do what they were going to do. He is also an excellent long-range forecaster.