Changes in Beryl - SAT 4AM (PG 7)

Ruger5 : While you are correct about the turn north (see pic below) & the "dirty side" - it will have lost a lot of its punch after coming inland that far. Dirty side is really only a huge concern at the landfall point and also inland but only to a certain point. It's also a pretty small and compact storm so the main effects are going to be pretty localized as far as tropical storm force winds & beyond. We will see rain and quote possibly a lot of it. From Space City Weather:"Beryl WILL NOT STALL, so I want to make clear for folks in Texas that this is not a Harvey redux. However, Beryl will move slowly once ashore. Even relatively more progressive and faster models like the GFS dump up to 10 inches in spots. So the heavy rain concern is there. Expect more color on this later today as well.""For folks in the Houston area:
Continue to monitor trends today and tomorrow. Make whatever preps you feel comfortable making or you feel are warranted. Current forecasts keep most meaningful impacts beyond localized flash flooding away from us. Coastal residents prepare for at least minor to moderate tidal flooding."What concerns me a bit is this track keeps inching more and more east.

fudgiesmom2 : They have not.

Weathergirl5 : Yeah and it seems like with each update it's doing just that. Of course landfall is still projected somewhere near Corpus, but it was projected to be a Mexico landfall for several days, then it was Brownsville, now it's Corpus. Reed Timmer is headed up to Port Lavaca! ............,.From Reed Timmer, who is headed to Texas:NOT A FORECAST: *The HWRF model shows a major Hurricane Beryl at landfall near Port Lavaca, Texas on Monday morning.
*While this is not a forecast, it does show a possible bad scenario for an intensifying Hurricane Beryl with farther right track. This would be a mega disaster for Texas. Now is the time to prepare.HWRF model:

StormChaser :
Yep that is what concerns me. Reminds me a bit of Harvey --in that when it was down near the Yucatan, it was projected to go way south of Houston but with each update, it crept more north towards Houston. NOT to say this is Harvey before people jump to conclusions, I am simply comparing similar tracks...

StormChaser : Very well explained!

Alright guys - new trends and models are out and they are pretty important. ❗ This is NOT a concrete forecast but I felt I needed to post because if it comes to fruition, Houston could be in trouble. *These trends show it will take the northern track, have more time over the Gulf, and then a landfall near Galveston as a possible Cat 2 storm. (Maybe even a 3)*They also show it slowing down. I know this is not what we want to hear. *New EURO model is esp concerning. This is what I was worried about earlier this week. EURO Model:ICON model:GFS Model is starting to follow to the Euro and icon. Landfall predictions:I Will BE UPDATING OFTEN FROM NOW ON.

Here's Levi Conan's post about Beryl today. He always goes into great detail in easy to understand language. It all depends where Beryl pops out at in the Yucatán Peninsula- he didn't say anything about a Cat 2 or 3 intensity.
So yes y'all do need to remain vigilant. Levi also has many different model runs on his site that you can watch. It's interesting to see how different models have different outcomes. Tomorrow they will tighten up and a more accurate forecast will happenwww.tropicaltidbits. com/

StormChaser : but where is jim cantore?!?! LOL!!!!

fudgiesmom2 :
Is the guy Garcia??

yankeejessica : Lol, probably in one of the planes sprinkling Adderall into the clouds and yelling, "Make up your ****ing mind!"

Brat : LMMMMAAAOOO!!!!!

4PM FRI BERYL UPDATE This is very concerning guys and exactly what I was afraid of. With each update, it gets pushed further east towards us. How far East is now the question. South = less time over the water and a weaker storm. (Corpus)
North = longer time over the Gulf and a stronger storm. (Matagorda/Galveston)NEW | BERYL TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH |4pm update from NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center: *Latest advisory now shows a possible landfall closer to Matagorda Bay followed by a northeast turn into Southeast Texas. *There are some models indicating a landfall further east closer to Galveston but we will have to watch and see..........These are some of the models that are starting to trend, which is worrisome:Model: Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting SystemICON:Hurricane WATCHES are up for the Texas and Mexico coast. www.nhc.noaa.gov/gra phics_at2.shtml?star t#contents*This is the 4pm Friday July 5 Update - Next update at 10pm

Well I guess time will tell.

I wanted to add this to the above post (from Reed Timmer) He does believe it will move more to the north before landfall as a Cat 2 hurricane. HURRICANE WATCH has been issued from Brownsville to Sargent, Texas! Further intensification is expected! Texas impacts southwest of Houston very likely. Stronger hurricane, life-threatening flooding and tornado outbreak expectedGalveston needs to be on guard.