Changes in Beryl - SAT 4AM (PG 7)
Changes in Beryl - SAT 4AM (PG 7)
This discussion has been locked.
StormChaser : I am a Hurricane Harvey survivor. I fear that the projected track I'm seeing now of Beryl is similar to the track that hurricane Harvey presented. Do you see this possibility? As always, thank you
FreebyrdII : Harvey was stuck between equal-strength high-pressure systems trying to push the storm in the opposite directions. This storm will have an open window to keep moving to the north.
|
StormChaser : Thank you so much for these updates. Bottom Line these storms are unpredictable & must be closely watched & monitored!😘â¤ï¸ðŸ™
- - - - - - - -
>> Changes in Beryl - Space City Weather. *The forecast calls for 20-40mpg winds here with 2-4" of rain with more in isolated areas. *Timing looks to be Sunday night through Tuesday PM. *It looks to go in and change directions and we all know that that can do so its something to monitor. Beryl Reaches The Yucatan, And Is Now Likely To Make Landfall In Texas On Monday As Its Track Shifts Northward. Eric Berger · Friday, July 5, 2024 7:44 AM In brief: *The track for Hurricane Beryl has shifted northward during the last 24 hours, and a landfall is now expected near or south of Corpus Christi. *This does increase the threat of significant impacts to the Greater Houston area, but we continue to think the system will be mostly manageable locally. *Needless to say we're following things closely. HURRICANE BERYL TRACK CHANGES: *During the last 24 hours we have seen a significant move northward in the track forecast for Hurricane Beryl, which has just moved into the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. *The storm, with 100 mph winds, has remained a little stronger than expected, and this supports the notion of a sharper northwestern turn in the coming days. *This post will discuss the current thinking of Beryl, and its impacts to Houston's weather early next week - which could now but a little more significant than we anticipated. FRIDAY (TODAY): *Today will be our last hot and mostly sunny day for awhile, given the impending influx of tropical moisture. *Look for highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees for most inland locations, with slightly cooler temperatures near the coast. *Winds will be very light, perhaps at just 5 mph from the south. *There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of afternoon showers. *Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: *Rain chances increase to about 50 percent on Saturday as a weak front approaches the Houston metro area from the north. *This is not going to bring much (any, really) cooler or drier air into our region, but it should help increase cloud cover, and allow for air at the surface to rise. *Rain accumulations don't look crazy, more on the order of passing, scattered showers most likely. *By Sunday our weather may start to become influenced by Beryl, but the storm is now not expected to come to the Texas coast until Monday morning. *My best guess for Sunday is highs in the low 90s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and perhaps a 50 percent chance of rain. *This is unlikely to be heavy rainfall, as the threat of that probably holds off until Monday. *Southeasterly winds will increase. HURRICANE BERYL'S TRACK: *The northward shift in Beryl's track can be attributed to a stronger system over the last day or so, and something of a northward wobble on the Fourth of July. *Our typically best performing models, including the GFS and European, and the hurricane specific models, have all shifted northward overnight. *They now generally indicate a landfall between Brownsville and Corpus Christi about three days from now - possibly even as north as Matagorda. *Where Beryl ultimately makes landfall will depend on how far the high pressure system over the southern United States retreats. *The landfall location is complicated by the contour of the South Texas coastline, which is very nearly north-south relative to the Gulf of Mexico. ◠This means that, as Beryl turns northwestward around the ridge of high pressure, even a relatively small deviation in course can change the landfall location significantly. (Which is why you never ignore these storms) *Regarding Houston, I would love to be able to tell you with certainty that Beryl will make landfall near or south of Corpus Christi. *I truly think that will be the case but as Beryl's track has moved significantly in the last 24 hours that is not something I can guarantee you. *The entire Texas coastline, for what it's worth, lies in the National Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty. BERYL'S INTENSITY: *Beryl made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, and will spend most of today traversing the Mexican peninsula before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico this evening or tonight, as a strong tropical storm. *The storm will then have about two days, or a little longer, to re-strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico before making a final landfall late on Sunday night or, more probably, Monday. *Given that Beryl will have plenty of time over the Gulf, it is likely that the storm intensifies back into a hurricane. *Nearly all of our guidance shows the system remaining a Category 1 hurricane as it nears the Texas coast, but certainly we cannot rule out a stronger storm. HOUSTON IMPACTS: *At this time the Houston area is still unlikely to see severe impacts from Beryl, but obviously we are watching the situation closely due to the evolving track. *I would anticipate about a 20 percent chance of Galveston experiencing tropical-storm force winds on Sunday or Monday, with lesser odds for inland areas. *In terms of storm surge, at this point Beryl should remain far enough south to preclude a significant surge into Galveston Island and Galveston Bay. *We are talking tides maybe a few feet higher than normal, not dissimilar to the effects of Tropical Storm Alberto a couple of weeks ago. Obviously we'll monitor this closely. *What hasn't changed much is the precipitation forecast: -Much of the Houston area is still likely to see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the coming week. -Our concern remains the potential for higher bullseyes, driven the tropical nature of rainfall from Beryl, on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. -That is something we have not had great confidence in predicting, and still don't. -The bottom line is that there remains no signal for major flooding in the Houston area at this time. FINAL THOUGHTS: *I realize some readers will be disconcerted by the changes in Beryl's track - It has been a surprising move, but not one out of the realm of probability - and this is ultimately the nature of tropical weather. *Matt and I don't think there's a great chance that Beryl comes inland into Texas north of Corpus Christi BUT is there a chance that could happen? Yes. *It is certainly higher than it was on Thursday when we looked at the data. *We are at the point where the greater Houston region, including Galveston Island, should be wary of Beryl, but not overly worried. *Expect multiple updates today to keep you as best informed as possible. spacecityweather.com /beryl-reaches-the-y ucatan-and-is-now-li kely-to-make-la
StormChaser : Thank you friend!
Jonn tipped 
cbear 100 credits for a post in this forum discussion.
Oh lord I ain't got a generator yet. If the power goes out and I throw away another fridge full of food... I've thrown out so much food in the last year I could have bought two generators for the price.
seem2 : Costco had the on sale two days ago.
FreebyrdII : Harvey was stuck between equal-strength high-pressure systems trying to push the storm in the opposite directions. This storm will have an open window to keep moving to the north.
Slow4x4 : That's exactly what I'm thinking. If it stays on current path (which is how unlikely given what it did over night?) Gonna be interesting where it waffles today. The powers that be can only give landfall guesses based on where it is right now……..tomorrow who knows. This, this right here is what lovers of canes and storms live for. It's the only thing that makes summers a wee bit interesting. We're an odd lot. We like watching from afar - hoping for the far side of dirty😜
StormChaser : I am a Hurricane Harvey survivor. I fear that the projected track I'm seeing now of Beryl is similar to the track that hurricane Harvey presented. Do you see this possibility? As always, thank you
FreebyrdII : Good question 
sudoers
FreebyrdII : It's one of many models that are used to guesstimate the path and intensity of a hurricane
FreebyrdII : It's one of many models that are used to guesstimate the path and intensity of a hurricane
Labslady : So, it's not to be ignored …………or taken with a grain of salt? Never heard of it before.
|
|
Beryl comes ashore in the Yucatan with a fluid forecast and eyes on the Texas coast this weekend 
July 5, 2024 at 9:22 am by Matt Lanza 
*Beryl will weaken as it moves across the Yucatan today, emerging as a tropical storm tonight in the Gulf.
*Beryl will steadily re-intensify as it comes west across the Gulf.
*Forecasts have shifted north since yesterday and a landfall as a hurricane on the Texas coast north of South Padre Island is likely Sunday night or Monday, with risks as far north as Matagorda Bay.
*Impacts will include wind, surge, heavy rain and flooding, as well as isolated tornadoes, especially near and north of exactly where Beryl makes landfall.
*Preparations should be in full swing on the Lower & Middle Texas Coasts. *Matagorda Bay should keep a close eye on this.
*Coastal residents in Houston/Galveston should prepare for tidal flooding again.
*We'll have another post later today. Hurricane Beryl (< 100 mph, WNW 15 mph) *Beryl made landfall this morning on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico just northeast of Tulum.
*It is now inland over the Yucatan and has lost its primary fuel for intensification, the warm Caribbean. 
*Despite weakening to a tropical storm, it is likely that Beryl will not be starting from scratch once in the Gulf. Its core should remain fairly in tact, and it will not take much to allow it to begin to feel the warm Gulf waters again and begin re-intensifying. Beryl's future track *Beryl is going to be walking an absolute tightrope over the next 2 days.
*I say that for residents of Texas, because as Beryl turns, exactly where that turn occurs will have an outsized impact on who sees exactly what.
*For now, I think the key player is this trough over the Plains.
*Over the last 48 hours, models have tended to further strengthen the trough. That coupled with a slightly farther north track of Beryl has led to Beryl being able to "feel" the tug of this trough more, which is forcing Beryl to come a little more to the north when it gets into the western Gulf of Mexico. So what exactly does this mean for Beryl's forecast track? *When you look at the 51 member European ensemble now, you can see that the majority of the members are turning Beryl northwest or even north northwest into Texas. The problem is two-fold. *First, where exactly does that turn to the north northwest occur? That will determine the landfall point on the Texas coast. *Secondly, that landfall point will have tremendous impact on who sees what.
*A landfall in Matagorda Bay means the southwest suburbs of Houston could experience a full fledged tropical storm type outcome, whereas Corpus Christi would be pretty much fine.
*A landfall in Baffin Bay south of Corpus would likely deliver hurricane impacts to Corpus Christi and few impacts to Houston beyond thunderstorms and rain.
*Storms approaching at an angle, rather than more perpendicular to the coast provide a world of problems from communicating impacts.
*Literally a 15 mile change in the angle of approach can add or remove entire counties from certain expected impacts.
*My hope is that we'll get some additional color on this by afternoon, and we will have another update this evening with the information. How strong will Beryl get? *Beryl's intensity will be contingent, somewhat, on what it looks like coming off the Yucatan.
*Assuming some organization still, as well as tropical storm status should allow it to begin to quickly re-intensify.
*The waters of the Gulf, or the oceanic heat content available to Beryl is not inconsequential, but it's also not the Caribbean rocket fuel that it had on the other side of the Yucatan. *Still, this argues for steady intensification as Beryl comes toward the Gulf.
*Water temperatures immediately adjacent to the Texas coast are quite warm, so Beryl will not weaken on approach and should make landfall as a strengthening storm.
*Most modeling keeps Beryl as a tropical storm or a low-end hurricane as it comes ashore.
*The NHC forecast is slightly more aggressive than this, which is a stance I wholeheartedly agree with.
*I would plan for a borderline category 2 storm at landfall and hope for the best. The radius of hurricane force winds is currently only 30 miles out from the center, so Beryl is a relatively small storm. Do not focus on the intensity of Beryl other than if you live along the immediate coast, as this will likely deliver tropical storm wind impacts to most. However, widespread tropical storm winds and localized hurricane winds will still cause power outages and damage and should be respected. *In addition, while we don't currently have a storm surge forecast, it is safe to assume that Beryl will deliver a surge and coastal flooding between Corpus Christi and Cameron Parish, LA.
*We will have more details on this to come, but expect something similar to Alberto's impact last month, with pockets of worse conditions near and to the north of where the center comes ashore. Beryl also a heavy rain and flooding concern *In addition to the hurricane impacts we normally see, Beryl will be a heavy rain producer for Texas.
*The current rainfall forecast is calling for locally 6 to 8 inches of rainfall, but I fully anticipate that this forecast will be upgraded some before all is said and done.
*Double digit rainfall totals are likely in a few spots with the most persistent rainfall and localized flash flooding is going to be a concern. *Beryl Will NOT STALL, so I want to make clear for folks in Texas that this is not a Harvey redux.
*However, Beryl will move slowly once ashore. Even relatively more progressive and faster models like the GFS dump up to 10 inches in spots. So the heavy rain concern is there. Expect more color on this later today as well. The bottom line? *For folks in the Rio Grande Valley:Â If you live in a flood prone area, keep an eye on the rainfall forecast for Beryl. Wind impacts will likely be confined to Brownsville and the coast. *For folks on the Lower and Middle Texas Coast and Coastal Bend region, including Corpus Christi:Â Prepare as if a hurricane is coming and make sure to follow local officials guidance in terms of evacuation if needed. *For folks in the Matagorda Bay area:Â Start making preparations in case the forecast shifts to the north and brings hurricane conditions closer to the area. *For folks in the Houston area:Â Continue to monitor trends today and tomorrow. Make whatever preps you feel comfortable making or you feel are warranted. Current forecasts keep most meaningful impacts beyond localized flash flooding away from us. Coastal residents prepare for at least minor to moderate tidal flooding. We will have another update late this afternoon.
*Beryl will steadily re-intensify as it comes west across the Gulf.
*Forecasts have shifted north since yesterday and a landfall as a hurricane on the Texas coast north of South Padre Island is likely Sunday night or Monday, with risks as far north as Matagorda Bay.
*Impacts will include wind, surge, heavy rain and flooding, as well as isolated tornadoes, especially near and north of exactly where Beryl makes landfall.
*Preparations should be in full swing on the Lower & Middle Texas Coasts. *Matagorda Bay should keep a close eye on this.
*Coastal residents in Houston/Galveston should prepare for tidal flooding again.
*We'll have another post later today.
*It is now inland over the Yucatan and has lost its primary fuel for intensification, the warm Caribbean.
*I say that for residents of Texas, because as Beryl turns, exactly where that turn occurs will have an outsized impact on who sees exactly what.
*For now, I think the key player is this trough over the Plains.
*Over the last 48 hours, models have tended to further strengthen the trough. That coupled with a slightly farther north track of Beryl has led to Beryl being able to "feel" the tug of this trough more, which is forcing Beryl to come a little more to the north when it gets into the western Gulf of Mexico.
*A landfall in Matagorda Bay means the southwest suburbs of Houston could experience a full fledged tropical storm type outcome, whereas Corpus Christi would be pretty much fine.
*A landfall in Baffin Bay south of Corpus would likely deliver hurricane impacts to Corpus Christi and few impacts to Houston beyond thunderstorms and rain.
*Storms approaching at an angle, rather than more perpendicular to the coast provide a world of problems from communicating impacts.
*Literally a 15 mile change in the angle of approach can add or remove entire counties from certain expected impacts.
*My hope is that we'll get some additional color on this by afternoon, and we will have another update this evening with the information.
*Assuming some organization still, as well as tropical storm status should allow it to begin to quickly re-intensify.
*The waters of the Gulf, or the oceanic heat content available to Beryl is not inconsequential, but it's also not the Caribbean rocket fuel that it had on the other side of the Yucatan.
*Water temperatures immediately adjacent to the Texas coast are quite warm, so Beryl will not weaken on approach and should make landfall as a strengthening storm.
*Most modeling keeps Beryl as a tropical storm or a low-end hurricane as it comes ashore.
*The NHC forecast is slightly more aggressive than this, which is a stance I wholeheartedly agree with.
*I would plan for a borderline category 2 storm at landfall and hope for the best. The radius of hurricane force winds is currently only 30 miles out from the center, so Beryl is a relatively small storm. Do not focus on the intensity of Beryl other than if you live along the immediate coast, as this will likely deliver tropical storm wind impacts to most. However, widespread tropical storm winds and localized hurricane winds will still cause power outages and damage and should be respected.
*We will have more details on this to come, but expect something similar to Alberto's impact last month, with pockets of worse conditions near and to the north of where the center comes ashore.
*The current rainfall forecast is calling for locally 6 to 8 inches of rainfall, but I fully anticipate that this forecast will be upgraded some before all is said and done.
*Double digit rainfall totals are likely in a few spots with the most persistent rainfall and localized flash flooding is going to be a concern.
*However, Beryl will move slowly once ashore. Even relatively more progressive and faster models like the GFS dump up to 10 inches in spots. So the heavy rain concern is there.
|
|
Ruger5 : Looks to be a Cat 1- y'all had worse weather with all those May storms. Just the rain you were looking for
Labslady : Not if it heads to Houston. It could easily be a cat 2 or maybe a 3. This discussion has been locked.
« Back to ChatViews: 8,167
# Replies: 102