Tropics update + forecast- 8/31
Tropics update + forecast- 8/31
Tropics update - 8/31 👉 I will post all new info on this thread so keep an eye on it for updates. 👉 Full forecast a bit further down in comments. 👉 From SCW/The Eyewall - Invest 97L, yet to organize, looks to dump some heavy rain east of Houston and west of Beaumont this week. Flash flooding is a concern just east of Houston proper. 4-6" looks likely with isolated pockets of 10" to our east. 👉 IN BRIEF -
*Invest 97L has an imposing satellite image but it has yet to make serious strides toward actually organizing yet.
*It remains distinctly a heavy rain and flash flooding concern, particularly east of Houston heading into midweek.
*But folks close to the coast east of Houston should continue to monitor Invest 97L for potential development before it comes ashore tomorrow. 👉 INVEST 97L - *The good news is that scary looking satellite imagery is not correlated to tropical system intensity.
*On satellite, Invest 97L looks quite imposing this morning, but it's notable that almost all the storminess is to the east of the presumed center. 
*Aside from that, we remain around 70 percent odds of potential development as of the overnight update from NHC. *In terms of things that have and have not changed otherwise overnight 👉 The track is mostly unchanged, generally toward the Upper Texas Coast with the center arriving onshore sometime tomorrow afternoon or evening.
*If there is a slight change in track, it's that more tropical models are a little farther south and west with 97L, perhaps owing to the fact that it has not developed yet. 
*Weaker systems will tend to go a little farther west before turning northward, and that could be what's at play here.
*Either way, it's good news that it has not organized yet. The more time it takes organizing also reduces the amount of time it has to intensify.
*So in general, we're still looking at a decent chance at a tropical depression and a moderate chance at a tropical storm by landfall.
*People on the Texas coast, especially east of Houston should continue to monitor Invest 97L through the day. *What we are likely to see is more rain, however. Rain totals continue to slowly increase in East Texas. We would now expect about 1 to 3 inches, with isolated pockets of 3-5 inches of rain or more east of Houston and west of Beaumont.
*It's not out of the question that someone sees close to 10 inches of rain from this before all is said and done, so obviously areas of flash flooding will be a concern, perhaps not in Houston proper, but east of there. 
👉 So, bottom line? A tropical storm remains a distinct possibility out of Invest 97L. A depression is a good bet.
*The main threat will be heavy rain and flooding between Houston and Beaumont and inland from there.
*Folks east of Houston, between Bolivar and Port Arthur will want to keep an eye on 97L over the next 36 hours before landfall, in case it does try to organize faster. 👉 Next name on the list is Edouard. More later today.
Sunshine527, jv339 and Jeepinbear + 15 more reacted********************
*Invest 97L has an imposing satellite image but it has yet to make serious strides toward actually organizing yet.
*It remains distinctly a heavy rain and flash flooding concern, particularly east of Houston heading into midweek.
*But folks close to the coast east of Houston should continue to monitor Invest 97L for potential development before it comes ashore tomorrow.
*On satellite, Invest 97L looks quite imposing this morning, but it's notable that almost all the storminess is to the east of the presumed center.
*If there is a slight change in track, it's that more tropical models are a little farther south and west with 97L, perhaps owing to the fact that it has not developed yet.
*Either way, it's good news that it has not organized yet. The more time it takes organizing also reduces the amount of time it has to intensify.
*So in general, we're still looking at a decent chance at a tropical depression and a moderate chance at a tropical storm by landfall.
*People on the Texas coast, especially east of Houston should continue to monitor Invest 97L through the day.
*It's not out of the question that someone sees close to 10 inches of rain from this before all is said and done, so obviously areas of flash flooding will be a concern, perhaps not in Houston proper, but east of there.
*The main threat will be heavy rain and flooding between Houston and Beaumont and inland from there.
*Folks east of Houston, between Bolivar and Port Arthur will want to keep an eye on 97L over the next 36 hours before landfall, in case it does try to organize faster.
StormChaser : thank you for the reliable information.
Full forecast from Space City Weather: Tropical system likely to bring heavy rainfall to upper Texas coast. Eric Berger · Monday, August 31, 2026 6:52 AM 👉 IN BRIEF: *In today's post we provide the latest information on Invest 97L, which is meandering west toward Texas this morning.
*The primary threat is heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding, particularly east of Houston heading into midweek. We'll be providing regular updates today and Tuesday. 👉 INVEST 97L - *The tropical system has not significantly strengthened overnight, which is a good thing for coastal residents concerned about tropical storm force winds and a storm surge.
*As of 7 am this morning, the National Hurricane Center still gives it a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm.
*This tropical system, Invest 97L, still has about 30 hours before coming ashore in the middle of the day Tuesday, so it remains possible that a tropical depression or storm could form before landfall.
*Coastal areas from High Island up the Texas coast to Cameron, Louisiana, should prepare for the possibility of a landfalling tropical storm. 
*The bigger issue for most of us, including Houston, is the potential for heavy rainfall from this system.
*There is likely to be a band of higher rainfall totals the accompanies this system-perhaps on the order of 3 to 6 inches as it moves inland.
*Tropical rainfall like this has the potential to produce flash flooding. *Right now our best guess based upon 97L's track is that this band of heavy rain falls just to the east of the Houston metro area, between here and Beaumont.
*But this could shift (closer to, or further from Houston), and we will want to pay attention over the next two days to see how this system evolves.
*The most likely period for heavy rainfall is from early Tuesday through Tuesday evening. *In Houston, right now, our expectation is for 0.5 to 2 inches of rain, with greater amounts along and east of Interstate 45.
*We do not anticipate impactful winds, but again we'll need to monitor this for possible changes in track and intensity.
*We will have a post this afternoon, no later than 2 pm, to provide the latest forecast information. 👉 MONDAY - *Today will be business as usual in terms of the heat we've been experiencing of late, which is to say we can expect widespread high temperatures in the mid-90s in Houston, with highs in the upper 90s further inland.
*Scattered showers associated with Invest 97L will be possible to the east of Houston, but I'm skeptical that we'll see too much activity within the metro area itself.
*Overall rain chances today are probably only about 20 or 30 percent, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be fairly light, from the east. 
👉 TUESDAY - *As noted above, Tuesday is when rain showers associated with the tropical system are most likely.
*While the details are still a bit uncertain, it appears that rain chances will start to increase during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday and peak during the middle of the day. 👉 Will everyone see rain? *After a very dry August we're all pretty desperate for precipitation.
*Chances are highest to the east of I-45, but at this point I DO think a majority of the city and surrounding counties will see precipitation, although areas such as Katy and further west may well miss out.
*Highs on Tuesday may peak in the 80s for some locations due to showers and cloud cover. 👉 REST OF THE WEEK - WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, and FRIDAY - *The rest of the week should see highs in the low 90s, with a mix of clouds and sunshine.
*Although the threat of heavy rainfall should be gone, we'll continue to see decent (30 to 50 percent, probably) shower chances each day along with the sea breeze.
*This should be fairly typical weather for early September. 👉 LABOR DAY WEEKEND and BEYOND - *We are going to see a continuation of this pattern into the holiday weekend, most likely.
*I think daily highs this weekend will be in the low to mid-90s with partly to mostly sunny skies. 👉 Will it rain this weekend? (We certainly cannot rule it out, but if we do see precipitation it likely will come in the form of a passing shower that moves through fairly quickly.
*We should start to get more confidence in the Labor Day weekend outlook after 97L passes on Tuesday.
Sunshine527, teatime and Jeepinbear + 1 more reacted*The primary threat is heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding, particularly east of Houston heading into midweek.
*As of 7 am this morning, the National Hurricane Center still gives it a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm.
*This tropical system, Invest 97L, still has about 30 hours before coming ashore in the middle of the day Tuesday, so it remains possible that a tropical depression or storm could form before landfall.
*Coastal areas from High Island up the Texas coast to Cameron, Louisiana, should prepare for the possibility of a landfalling tropical storm.
*There is likely to be a band of higher rainfall totals the accompanies this system-perhaps on the order of 3 to 6 inches as it moves inland.
*Tropical rainfall like this has the potential to produce flash flooding.
*But this could shift (closer to, or further from Houston), and we will want to pay attention over the next two days to see how this system evolves.
*The most likely period for heavy rainfall is from early Tuesday through Tuesday evening.
*We do not anticipate impactful winds, but again we'll need to monitor this for possible changes in track and intensity.
*We will have a post this afternoon, no later than 2 pm, to provide the latest forecast information.
*Scattered showers associated with Invest 97L will be possible to the east of Houston, but I'm skeptical that we'll see too much activity within the metro area itself.
*Overall rain chances today are probably only about 20 or 30 percent, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be fairly light, from the east.
*While the details are still a bit uncertain, it appears that rain chances will start to increase during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday and peak during the middle of the day.
*Chances are highest to the east of I-45, but at this point I DO think a majority of the city and surrounding counties will see precipitation, although areas such as Katy and further west may well miss out.
*Highs on Tuesday may peak in the 80s for some locations due to showers and cloud cover.
*Although the threat of heavy rainfall should be gone, we'll continue to see decent (30 to 50 percent, probably) shower chances each day along with the sea breeze.
*This should be fairly typical weather for early September.
*I think daily highs this weekend will be in the low to mid-90s with partly to mostly sunny skies.
*We should start to get more confidence in the Labor Day weekend outlook after 97L passes on Tuesday.
Remnants of Dolly - forecast has dropped back down to 10% Invest 97L is still at 70% but should be at 90%. 
teatime, Jeepinbear and peppermintstick + 1 more reacted
Tropics update - 8/31 👉 I will post all new info on this thread so keep an eye on it for updates. 👉 Full forecast a bit further down in comments. ************************ 👉 From SCW/The Eyewall - Invest 97L, yet to organize, looks to dump some heavy rain east of Houston and west of Beaumont this week. Flash flooding is a concern just east of Houston proper. 4-6" looks likely with isolated pockets of 10" to our east. 👉 IN BRIEF - *Invest 97L has an imposing satellite image but it has yet to make serious strides toward actually organizing yet. *It remains distinctly a heavy rain and flash flooding concern, particularly east of Houston heading into midweek. *But folks close to the coast east of Houston should continue to monitor Invest 97L for potential development before it comes ashore tomorrow. 👉 INVEST 97L - *The good news is that scary looking satellite imagery is not correlated to tropical system intensity. *On satellite, Invest 97L looks quite imposing this morning, but it's notable that almost all the storminess is to the east of the presumed center. *Aside from that, we remain around 70 percent odds of potential development as of the overnight update from NHC. *In terms of things that have and have not changed otherwise overnight 👉 The track is mostly unchanged, generally toward the Upper Texas Coast with the center arriving onshore sometime tomorrow afternoon or evening. *If there is a slight change in track, it's that more tropical models are a little farther south and west with 97L, perhaps owing to the fact that it has not developed yet. *Weaker systems will tend to go a little farther west before turning northward, and that could be what's at play here. *Either way, it's good news that it has not organized yet. The more time it takes organizing also reduces the amount of time it has to intensify. *So in general, we're still looking at a decent chance at a tropical depression and a moderate chance at a tropical storm by landfall. *People on the Texas coast, especially east of Houston should continue to monitor Invest 97L through the day. *What we are likely to see is more rain, however. Rain totals continue to slowly increase in East Texas. We would now expect about 1 to 3 inches, with isolated pockets of 3-5 inches of rain or more east of Houston and west of Beaumont. *It's not out of the question that someone sees close to 10 inches of rain from this before all is said and done, so obviously areas of flash flooding will be a concern, perhaps not in Houston proper, but east of there. 👉 So, bottom line? A tropical storm remains a distinct possibility out of Invest 97L. A depression is a good bet. *The main threat will be heavy rain and flooding between Houston and Beaumont and inland from there. *Folks east of Houston, between Bolivar and Port Arthur will want to keep an eye on 97L over the next 36 hours before landfall, in case it does try to organize faster. 👉 Next name on the list is Edouard. More later today.
StormChaser : Gammyof2 : I really hope that....this system can "beat the bubble"!
StormChaser: thanks for the info Mike Iskovitz on Fox, just said it was probably gonna hit between Galveston and Port Arthur, and we would get some rain from the left side.
StormChaser : Thanks for keeping us up to date. Daughter is getting back from a cruise today. I would not go with them and this storm is the reason why.
StormChaser: Fox has a live camera, down near Matagorda Bay and they are getting a good splash off the coast.
StormChaser: I love, Mike . He doesn't go all chicken little with the forecast. now, they are saying it might kind of trend east, and we could get rain, but none of the heavy winds and other problems. I'm sure this will change hourly
StormChaser: I love, Mike . He doesn't go all chicken little with the forecast. now, they are saying it might kind of trend east, and we could get rain, but none of the heavy winds and other problems. I'm sure this will change hourly
LittleTexas : He's the best meteorologist in Houston. 
1pm update - We now have a tropical depression. Tropical storm warning has been issued at the coast. Flood watch has also been issued for our area. Newest track takes it east near Winnie. www.fox26houston.com /news/houston-weathe r-monday-august-31-2 026?taid=6a95ba 
teatime, malpalface and AggieBandMom + 1 more reacted
1pm update - We now have a tropical depression. Tropical storm warning has been issued at the coast. Flood watch has also been issued for our area. Newest track takes it east near Winnie. www.fox26houston.com /news/houston-weathe r-monday-august-31-2 026?taid=6a95ba
StormChaser : You notice the higher cloud tops to the south west? Storm is certainly trying to get it together. « Back to Chat
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