Tropics update + rainy weekend ahead
Tropics update + rainy weekend ahead
Tropics update + rainy weekend ahead As daily shower chances continue in Houston let's check in on the Atlantic hurricane season. Eric Berger · Thursday, July 9, 2026 6:50 AM 👉So what's going on in the tropics - The short answer is … nothing. 👍 It is dead quiet out there for a number of reasons: *July is often a fairly low-key month when it comes to the Atlantic tropics.
*The main reason right now is Saharan dust. It's blowing off the Saharan desert and spreading far and wide in the atmosphere between Africa and the Caribbean Sea. 
*There are also other background factors like generally sinking air, and the bottom line is that we anticipate the Atlantic tropics to remain quiet for the next week, and possibly longer.
*Maybe a storm will pop up of the Carolinas, in the Atlantic Ocean, but even that appears to be a low-end threat.
*I don't think Texas has much to worry about any time soon.
*It is still early in the Atlantic season, and historically things don't really start to pick up for at least a month from now.
*It is worth noting that the level of activity recorded to date is only about 10 percent of historical levels for this time of year.
*So that's something we can all be happy about and it would be lovely if that trend continued. 
👉COLORADO STATE LOWERS PREDICTED STORM FORECAST: *This week the team at Colorado State University released their updated seasonal forecast, and they've continued to revise their projections downward. 🚨The forecasters now predict 9 named storms this season, down from their projection of 11 in June, and 13 back in April "We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear," the team said in their latest update. "We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean." 👉CSU UPDATE: tropical.colostate.e du/forecasting.html For now it's all good news but the Houston region still has about 2.5 months to go for this season, so we're not going to throw any parties just yet. ........ 👉Forecast for the remainder of the week: 👉THURSDAY and FRIDAY *These days will be similar to what we've experienced this week, with mostly sunny conditions for most of Houston, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for inland areas, and slightly cooler conditions near the coast.
*We are likely to continue to see the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, along the sea breeze.
*These showers will be hit or miss, and your overall likelihood of seeing rain is probably only 20 to 30 percent.
*Overnight lows will be warm, with temperatures only falling to about 80 degrees. 👉SATURDAY and SUNDAY *Rain chances increase to about 50 percent, each day, for the weekend as atmospheric moisture levels increase.
*Generally, my expectation would be for showers to start out closer to the coast during the mid to late morning hours and then progress inland later in the day.
*Overall totals don't look too impactful.
*Most of Houston is likely to pick up 0.5 inch or less, but there will probably be some higher bullseyes.
*Basically, if you have outdoor plans, have somewhere to take shelter.
*We should see a few more clouds, this may limit highs to the lower 90s. 
👉NEXT WEEK *My sense is that the first part of next week, Monday and Tuesday, will bring even higher rain chances.
*We are not expecting anything in the way of flooding, at least not right now.
*A healthy 1 to 2 inches of rain would be helpful for area soils.
*Widespread rains could also limit some highs into the upper 80s. Matt will have more on this period in his forecast post tomorrow.
Rocketgirl13, AggieBandMom and cbear + 2 more reacted*The main reason right now is Saharan dust. It's blowing off the Saharan desert and spreading far and wide in the atmosphere between Africa and the Caribbean Sea.
*Maybe a storm will pop up of the Carolinas, in the Atlantic Ocean, but even that appears to be a low-end threat.
*I don't think Texas has much to worry about any time soon.
*It is still early in the Atlantic season, and historically things don't really start to pick up for at least a month from now.
*It is worth noting that the level of activity recorded to date is only about 10 percent of historical levels for this time of year.
*So that's something we can all be happy about and it would be lovely if that trend continued.
*We are likely to continue to see the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, along the sea breeze.
*These showers will be hit or miss, and your overall likelihood of seeing rain is probably only 20 to 30 percent.
*Overnight lows will be warm, with temperatures only falling to about 80 degrees.
*Generally, my expectation would be for showers to start out closer to the coast during the mid to late morning hours and then progress inland later in the day.
*Overall totals don't look too impactful.
*Most of Houston is likely to pick up 0.5 inch or less, but there will probably be some higher bullseyes.
*Basically, if you have outdoor plans, have somewhere to take shelter.
*We should see a few more clouds, this may limit highs to the lower 90s.
*We are not expecting anything in the way of flooding, at least not right now.
*A healthy 1 to 2 inches of rain would be helpful for area soils.
*Widespread rains could also limit some highs into the upper 80s.
Tropics update + rainy weekend ahead As daily shower chances continue in Houston let's check in on the Atlantic hurricane season. Eric Berger · Thursday, July 9, 2026 6:50 AM 👉So what's going on in the tropics - The short answer is … nothing. 👍 It is dead quiet out there for a number of reasons: *July is often a fairly low-key month when it comes to the Atlantic tropics. *The main reason right now is Saharan dust. It's blowing off the Saharan desert and spreading far and wide in the atmosphere between Africa and the Caribbean Sea. *There are also other background factors like generally sinking air, and the bottom line is that we anticipate the Atlantic tropics to remain quiet for the next week, and possibly longer. *Maybe a storm will pop up of the Carolinas, in the Atlantic Ocean, but even that appears to be a low-end threat. *I don't think Texas has much to worry about any time soon. *It is still early in the Atlantic season, and historically things don't really start to pick up for at least a month from now. *It is worth noting that the level of activity recorded to date is only about 10 percent of historical levels for this time of year. *So that's something we can all be happy about and it would be lovely if that trend continued. 👉COLORADO STATE LOWERS PREDICTED STORM FORECAST: *This week the team at Colorado State University released their updated seasonal forecast, and they've continued to revise their projections downward. 🚨The forecasters now predict 9 named storms this season, down from their projection of 11 in June, and 13 back in April "We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear," the team said in their latest update. "We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean." 👉CSU UPDATE: tropical.colostate.e du/forecasting.html For now it's all good news but the Houston region still has about 2.5 months to go for this season, so we're not going to throw any parties just yet. ........ 👉Forecast for the remainder of the week: 👉THURSDAY and FRIDAY *These days will be similar to what we've experienced this week, with mostly sunny conditions for most of Houston, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for inland areas, and slightly cooler conditions near the coast. *We are likely to continue to see the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, along the sea breeze. *These showers will be hit or miss, and your overall likelihood of seeing rain is probably only 20 to 30 percent. *Overnight lows will be warm, with temperatures only falling to about 80 degrees. 👉SATURDAY and SUNDAY *Rain chances increase to about 50 percent, each day, for the weekend as atmospheric moisture levels increase. *Generally, my expectation would be for showers to start out closer to the coast during the mid to late morning hours and then progress inland later in the day. *Overall totals don't look too impactful. *Most of Houston is likely to pick up 0.5 inch or less, but there will probably be some higher bullseyes. *Basically, if you have outdoor plans, have somewhere to take shelter. *We should see a few more clouds, this may limit highs to the lower 90s. 👉NEXT WEEK *My sense is that the first part of next week, Monday and Tuesday, will bring even higher rain chances. *We are not expecting anything in the way of flooding, at least not right now. *A healthy 1 to 2 inches of rain would be helpful for area soils. *Widespread rains could also limit some highs into the upper 80s. Matt will have more on this period in his forecast post tomorrow.
StormChaser : I love getting good news first thing in the morning.
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