Next week's forecast
Next week's forecast
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Next week's forecast For those asking, here is the forecast. I know a lot of you have messaged/tagged me but I had to back away for a while. I'm not looking for a pat on the back for posting about weather (why would I when #1 anyone can do it and #2 I love it so much) but I'm also not going to sit and be **** on either. The majority of you keep scrolling if weather isn't your thing (which I GREATLY appreciate) but on that day people were coming out of the woodwork on here (and then later it continued on social media) I can take being told I'm wrong but damn. It's just not worth what that type of BS does to my mental health so I logged off. 🤷â€â™€ï¸ Yes, I'm ok & I'm sober. â¤ï¸ All I ask is that you don't care to read about the weather, or you feel the need to criticize my weather posts, please just move on. Please. ......................................... Anywho - back to the ⛈ï¸âš¡ðŸŒ€â˜” This is a pretty sloppy forecast for a lot of reasons (now we have AI in play with weather forecasts) but the bottom like is: *The tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts will.
*Right now, the uncertainty comes in the form of rainfall totals. Will we see 2" of rain or will we see 6" of rain? *As of today (Friday) that part is still unknown but thankfully the forecast does NOT have a tropical system on our another website week. ........ From Space City Weather: Details Continue To Evolve On Next Week's Rain In Houston With A Focus Now On Midweek Matt Lanza · Friday, June 14, 2024 7:29 AM In brief: *After a quiet weekend, rain chances pick back up Monday and Tuesday before potentially heavier and more widespread rain on Wednesday and Thursday.
*Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible. Right out of the gate, we want to make sure people understand that next week's weather is being driven by two entities: -The first is the potential tropical system in the Bay of Campeche, which will NOT directly impact us. -The second will be the heavy rainfall on the north side, tangentially associated with it, that will impact us. The latter continues to give us some forecast headaches, which we'll explain below. TODAY AND SATURDAY: No issues are expected with plentiful sunshine. SUNDAY: For now, we expect much the same for Sunday, though a few extra clouds could begin to sneak in for the second half of the day, along with an isolated shower or downpour. 
MONDAY & TUESDAY: *We expect scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though it's a bit soon to pin down exactly where these will be most likely.
*Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours.
*This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees. âœ³ï¸ WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: âž¡ï¸ We are beginning to see a decent model agreement that Tuesday night, Wednesday, and early Thursday will feature our highest rain chances, and with that will likely come some heavy rainfall.
âž¡ï¸ I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding.
âž¡ï¸ The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs.
âž¡ï¸ Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast.
âž¡ï¸ While our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall. 
âž¡ï¸ One other possibility in this scenario is that a lot of rain falls at the immediate coast +or offshore) which ends up depriving inland areas of moisture.
âž¡ï¸ There is at least a chance that we will see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston. Things should hopefully quiet down later Thursday and Friday, regardless. BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM: We continue to see about a 50/50 shot that a tropical system develops in the Bay of Campeche next week.
*As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week.
*While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast. 
*Beyond this, there may be another sloppy system that tries to develop the week of June 24th, but we have plenty of time to watch that.... We'll have more on next week's situation over the weekend.
*Right now, the uncertainty comes in the form of rainfall totals. Will we see 2" of rain or will we see 6" of rain?
*Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible.
*Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours.
*This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees.
âž¡ï¸ I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding.
âž¡ï¸ The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs.
âž¡ï¸ Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast.
âž¡ï¸ While our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall.
âž¡ï¸ There is at least a chance that we will see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston.
*As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week.
*While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast.
Next week's forecast For those asking, here is the forecast. I know a lot of you have messaged/tagged me but I had to back away for a while. I'm not looking for a pat on the back for posting about weather (why would I when #1 anyone can do it and #2 I love it so much) but I'm also not going to sit and be **** on either. The majority of you keep scrolling if weather isn't your thing (which I GREATLY appreciate) but on that day people were coming out of the woodwork on here (and then later it continued on social media) I can take being told I'm wrong but damn. It's just not worth what that type of BS does to my mental health so I logged off. 🤷â€â™€ï¸ Yes, I'm ok & I'm sober. â¤ï¸ All I ask is that you don't care to read about the weather, or you feel the need to criticize my weather posts, please just move on. Please. ......................................... Anywho - back to the ⛈ï¸âš¡ðŸŒ€â˜” This is a pretty sloppy forecast for a lot of reasons (now we have AI in play with weather forecasts) but the bottom like is: *The tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts will.
*Right now, the uncertainty comes in the form of rainfall totals. Will we see 2" of rain or will we see 6" of rain? *As of today (Friday) that part is still unknown but thankfully the forecast does NOT have a tropical system on our another website week. ........ From Space City Weather: Details Continue To Evolve On Next Week's Rain In Houston With A Focus Now On Midweek Matt Lanza · Friday, June 14, 2024 7:29 AM In brief: *After a quiet weekend, rain chances pick back up Monday and Tuesday before potentially heavier and more widespread rain on Wednesday and Thursday.
*Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible. Right out of the gate, we want to make sure people understand that next week's weather is being driven by two entities: -The first is the potential tropical system in the Bay of Campeche, which will NOT directly impact us. -The second will be the heavy rainfall on the north side, tangentially associated with it, that will impact us. The latter continues to give us some forecast headaches, which we'll explain below. TODAY AND SATURDAY: No issues are expected with plentiful sunshine. SUNDAY: For now, we expect much the same for Sunday, though a few extra clouds could begin to sneak in for the second half of the day, along with an isolated shower or downpour. MONDAY & TUESDAY: *We expect scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though it's a bit soon to pin down exactly where these will be most likely.
*Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours.
*This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees. âœ³ï¸ WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: âž¡ï¸ We are beginning to see a decent model agreement that Tuesday night, Wednesday, and early Thursday will feature our highest rain chances, and with that will likely come some heavy rainfall.
âž¡ï¸ I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding.
âž¡ï¸ The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs.
âž¡ï¸ Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast.
âž¡ï¸ While our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall. âž¡ï¸ One other possibility in this scenario is that a lot of rain falls at the immediate coast +or offshore) which ends up depriving inland areas of moisture.
âž¡ï¸ There is at least a chance that we will see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston. Things should hopefully quiet down later Thursday and Friday, regardless. BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM: We continue to see about a 50/50 shot that a tropical system develops in the Bay of Campeche next week.
*As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week.
*While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast. *Beyond this, there may be another sloppy system that tries to develop the week of June 24th, but we have plenty of time to watch that.... We'll have more on next week's situation over the weekend.
*Right now, the uncertainty comes in the form of rainfall totals. Will we see 2" of rain or will we see 6" of rain?
*Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible.
*Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours.
*This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees.
âž¡ï¸ I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding.
âž¡ï¸ The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs.
âž¡ï¸ Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast.
âž¡ï¸ While our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall.
âž¡ï¸ There is at least a chance that we will see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston.
*As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week.
*While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast.
Labslady tipped StormChaser 1000 credits for a post in this forum discussion.
Next week's forecast For those asking, here is the forecast. I know a lot of you have messaged/tagged me but I had to back away for a while. I'm not looking for a pat on the back for posting about weather (why would I when #1 anyone can do it and #2 I love it so much) but I'm also not going to sit and be **** on either. The majority of you keep scrolling if weather isn't your thing (which I GREATLY appreciate) but on that day people were coming out of the woodwork on here (and then later it continued on social media) I can take being told I'm wrong but damn. It's just not worth what that type of BS does to my mental health so I logged off. 🤷â€â™€ï¸ Yes, I'm ok & I'm sober. â¤ï¸ All I ask is that you don't care to read about the weather, or you feel the need to criticize my weather posts, please just move on. Please. ......................................... Anywho - back to the ⛈ï¸âš¡ðŸŒ€â˜” This is a pretty sloppy forecast for a lot of reasons (now we have AI in play with weather forecasts) but the bottom like is: *The tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts will.
*Right now, the uncertainty comes in the form of rainfall totals. Will we see 2" of rain or will we see 6" of rain? *As of today (Friday) that part is still unknown but thankfully the forecast does NOT have a tropical system on our another website week. ........ From Space City Weather: Details Continue To Evolve On Next Week's Rain In Houston With A Focus Now On Midweek Matt Lanza · Friday, June 14, 2024 7:29 AM In brief: *After a quiet weekend, rain chances pick back up Monday and Tuesday before potentially heavier and more widespread rain on Wednesday and Thursday.
*Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible. Right out of the gate, we want to make sure people understand that next week's weather is being driven by two entities: -The first is the potential tropical system in the Bay of Campeche, which will NOT directly impact us. -The second will be the heavy rainfall on the north side, tangentially associated with it, that will impact us. The latter continues to give us some forecast headaches, which we'll explain below. TODAY AND SATURDAY: No issues are expected with plentiful sunshine. SUNDAY: For now, we expect much the same for Sunday, though a few extra clouds could begin to sneak in for the second half of the day, along with an isolated shower or downpour. MONDAY & TUESDAY: *We expect scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though it's a bit soon to pin down exactly where these will be most likely.
*Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours.
*This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees. âœ³ï¸ WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: âž¡ï¸ We are beginning to see a decent model agreement that Tuesday night, Wednesday, and early Thursday will feature our highest rain chances, and with that will likely come some heavy rainfall.
âž¡ï¸ I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding.
âž¡ï¸ The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs.
âž¡ï¸ Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast.
âž¡ï¸ While our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall. âž¡ï¸ One other possibility in this scenario is that a lot of rain falls at the immediate coast +or offshore) which ends up depriving inland areas of moisture.
âž¡ï¸ There is at least a chance that we will see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston. Things should hopefully quiet down later Thursday and Friday, regardless. BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM: We continue to see about a 50/50 shot that a tropical system develops in the Bay of Campeche next week.
*As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week.
*While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast. *Beyond this, there may be another sloppy system that tries to develop the week of June 24th, but we have plenty of time to watch that.... We'll have more on next week's situation over the weekend.
*Right now, the uncertainty comes in the form of rainfall totals. Will we see 2" of rain or will we see 6" of rain?
*Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible.
*Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours.
*This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees.
âž¡ï¸ I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding.
âž¡ï¸ The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs.
âž¡ï¸ Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast.
âž¡ï¸ While our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall.
âž¡ï¸ There is at least a chance that we will see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston.
*As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week.
*While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast.
KanKan tipped StormChaser 100 credits for a post in this forum discussion.
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StormChaser : Thanks for coming back to post weather for us. Ignore the naysayers. You're doing a good job!!â¤ï¸
Next week's forecast For those asking, here is the forecast. I know a lot of you have messaged/tagged me but I had to back away for a while. I'm not looking for a pat on the back for posting about weather (why would I when #1 anyone can do it and #2 I love it so much) but I'm also not going to sit and be **** on either. The majority of you keep scrolling if weather isn't your thing (which I GREATLY appreciate) but on that day people were coming out of the woodwork on here (and then later it continued on social media) I can take being told I'm wrong but damn. It's just not worth what that type of BS does to my mental health so I logged off. 🤷â€â™€ï¸ Yes, I'm ok & I'm sober. â¤ï¸ All I ask is that you don't care to read about the weather, or you feel the need to criticize my weather posts, please just move on. Please. ......................................... Anywho - back to the ⛈ï¸âš¡ðŸŒ€â˜” This is a pretty sloppy forecast for a lot of reasons (now we have AI in play with weather forecasts) but the bottom like is: *The tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts will.
*Right now, the uncertainty comes in the form of rainfall totals. Will we see 2" of rain or will we see 6" of rain? *As of today (Friday) that part is still unknown but thankfully the forecast does NOT have a tropical system on our another website week. ........ From Space City Weather: Details Continue To Evolve On Next Week's Rain In Houston With A Focus Now On Midweek Matt Lanza · Friday, June 14, 2024 7:29 AM In brief: *After a quiet weekend, rain chances pick back up Monday and Tuesday before potentially heavier and more widespread rain on Wednesday and Thursday.
*Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible. Right out of the gate, we want to make sure people understand that next week's weather is being driven by two entities: -The first is the potential tropical system in the Bay of Campeche, which will NOT directly impact us. -The second will be the heavy rainfall on the north side, tangentially associated with it, that will impact us. The latter continues to give us some forecast headaches, which we'll explain below. TODAY AND SATURDAY: No issues are expected with plentiful sunshine. SUNDAY: For now, we expect much the same for Sunday, though a few extra clouds could begin to sneak in for the second half of the day, along with an isolated shower or downpour. MONDAY & TUESDAY: *We expect scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though it's a bit soon to pin down exactly where these will be most likely.
*Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours.
*This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees. âœ³ï¸ WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: âž¡ï¸ We are beginning to see a decent model agreement that Tuesday night, Wednesday, and early Thursday will feature our highest rain chances, and with that will likely come some heavy rainfall.
âž¡ï¸ I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding.
âž¡ï¸ The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs.
âž¡ï¸ Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast.
âž¡ï¸ While our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall. âž¡ï¸ One other possibility in this scenario is that a lot of rain falls at the immediate coast +or offshore) which ends up depriving inland areas of moisture.
âž¡ï¸ There is at least a chance that we will see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston. Things should hopefully quiet down later Thursday and Friday, regardless. BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM: We continue to see about a 50/50 shot that a tropical system develops in the Bay of Campeche next week.
*As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week.
*While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast. *Beyond this, there may be another sloppy system that tries to develop the week of June 24th, but we have plenty of time to watch that.... We'll have more on next week's situation over the weekend.
*Right now, the uncertainty comes in the form of rainfall totals. Will we see 2" of rain or will we see 6" of rain?
*Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible.
*Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours.
*This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees.
âž¡ï¸ I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding.
âž¡ï¸ The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs.
âž¡ï¸ Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast.
âž¡ï¸ While our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall.
âž¡ï¸ There is at least a chance that we will see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston.
*As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week.
*While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast.
peppermintstick tipped StormChaser 100 credits for a post in this forum discussion. 
Next week's forecast For those asking, here is the forecast. I know a lot of you have messaged/tagged me but I had to back away for a while. I'm not looking for a pat on the back for posting about weather (why would I when #1 anyone can do it and #2 I love it so much) but I'm also not going to sit and be **** on either. The majority of you keep scrolling if weather isn't your thing (which I GREATLY appreciate) but on that day people were coming out of the woodwork on here (and then later it continued on social media) I can take being told I'm wrong but damn. It's just not worth what that type of BS does to my mental health so I logged off. 🤷â€â™€ï¸ Yes, I'm ok & I'm sober. â¤ï¸ All I ask is that you don't care to read about the weather, or you feel the need to criticize my weather posts, please just move on. Please. ......................................... Anywho - back to the ⛈ï¸âš¡ðŸŒ€â˜” This is a pretty sloppy forecast for a lot of reasons (now we have AI in play with weather forecasts) but the bottom like is: *The tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts will.
*Right now, the uncertainty comes in the form of rainfall totals. Will we see 2" of rain or will we see 6" of rain? *As of today (Friday) that part is still unknown but thankfully the forecast does NOT have a tropical system on our another website week. ........ From Space City Weather: Details Continue To Evolve On Next Week's Rain In Houston With A Focus Now On Midweek Matt Lanza · Friday, June 14, 2024 7:29 AM In brief: *After a quiet weekend, rain chances pick back up Monday and Tuesday before potentially heavier and more widespread rain on Wednesday and Thursday.
*Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible. Right out of the gate, we want to make sure people understand that next week's weather is being driven by two entities: -The first is the potential tropical system in the Bay of Campeche, which will NOT directly impact us. -The second will be the heavy rainfall on the north side, tangentially associated with it, that will impact us. The latter continues to give us some forecast headaches, which we'll explain below. TODAY AND SATURDAY: No issues are expected with plentiful sunshine. SUNDAY: For now, we expect much the same for Sunday, though a few extra clouds could begin to sneak in for the second half of the day, along with an isolated shower or downpour. MONDAY & TUESDAY: *We expect scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though it's a bit soon to pin down exactly where these will be most likely.
*Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours.
*This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees. âœ³ï¸ WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: âž¡ï¸ We are beginning to see a decent model agreement that Tuesday night, Wednesday, and early Thursday will feature our highest rain chances, and with that will likely come some heavy rainfall.
âž¡ï¸ I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding.
âž¡ï¸ The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs.
âž¡ï¸ Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast.
âž¡ï¸ While our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall. âž¡ï¸ One other possibility in this scenario is that a lot of rain falls at the immediate coast +or offshore) which ends up depriving inland areas of moisture.
âž¡ï¸ There is at least a chance that we will see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston. Things should hopefully quiet down later Thursday and Friday, regardless. BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM: We continue to see about a 50/50 shot that a tropical system develops in the Bay of Campeche next week.
*As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week.
*While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast. *Beyond this, there may be another sloppy system that tries to develop the week of June 24th, but we have plenty of time to watch that.... We'll have more on next week's situation over the weekend.
*Right now, the uncertainty comes in the form of rainfall totals. Will we see 2" of rain or will we see 6" of rain?
*Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible.
*Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours.
*This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees.
âž¡ï¸ I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding.
âž¡ï¸ The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs.
âž¡ï¸ Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast.
âž¡ï¸ While our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall.
âž¡ï¸ There is at least a chance that we will see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston.
*As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week.
*While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast.
Gingersnap tipped StormChaser 100 credits for a post in this forum discussion.
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Next week's forecast For those asking, here is the forecast. I know a lot of you have messaged/tagged me but I had to back away for a while. I'm not looking for a pat on the back for posting about weather (why would I when #1 anyone can do it and #2 I love it so much) but I'm also not going to sit and be **** on either. The majority of you keep scrolling if weather isn't your thing (which I GREATLY appreciate) but on that day people were coming out of the woodwork on here (and then later it continued on social media) I can take being told I'm wrong but damn. It's just not worth what that type of BS does to my mental health so I logged off. 🤷â€â™€ï¸ Yes, I'm ok & I'm sober. â¤ï¸ All I ask is that you don't care to read about the weather, or you feel the need to criticize my weather posts, please just move on. Please. ......................................... Anywho - back to the ⛈ï¸âš¡ðŸŒ€â˜” This is a pretty sloppy forecast for a lot of reasons (now we have AI in play with weather forecasts) but the bottom like is: *The tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts will. *Right now, the uncertainty comes in the form of rainfall totals. Will we see 2" of rain or will we see 6" of rain? *As of today (Friday) that part is still unknown but thankfully the forecast does NOT have a tropical system on our another website week. ........ From Space City Weather: Details Continue To Evolve On Next Week's Rain In Houston With A Focus Now On Midweek Matt Lanza · Friday, June 14, 2024 7:29 AM In brief: *After a quiet weekend, rain chances pick back up Monday and Tuesday before potentially heavier and more widespread rain on Wednesday and Thursday. *Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible. Right out of the gate, we want to make sure people understand that next week's weather is being driven by two entities: -The first is the potential tropical system in the Bay of Campeche, which will NOT directly impact us. -The second will be the heavy rainfall on the north side, tangentially associated with it, that will impact us. The latter continues to give us some forecast headaches, which we'll explain below. TODAY AND SATURDAY: No issues are expected with plentiful sunshine. SUNDAY: For now, we expect much the same for Sunday, though a few extra clouds could begin to sneak in for the second half of the day, along with an isolated shower or downpour. MONDAY & TUESDAY: *We expect scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though it's a bit soon to pin down exactly where these will be most likely. *Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours. *This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees. âœ³ï¸ WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: âž¡ï¸ We are beginning to see a decent model agreement that Tuesday night, Wednesday, and early Thursday will feature our highest rain chances, and with that will likely come some heavy rainfall. âž¡ï¸ I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding. âž¡ï¸ The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs. âž¡ï¸ Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast. âž¡ï¸ While our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall. âž¡ï¸ One other possibility in this scenario is that a lot of rain falls at the immediate coast +or offshore) which ends up depriving inland areas of moisture. âž¡ï¸ There is at least a chance that we will see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston. Things should hopefully quiet down later Thursday and Friday, regardless. BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM: We continue to see about a 50/50 shot that a tropical system develops in the Bay of Campeche next week. *As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week. *While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast. *Beyond this, there may be another sloppy system that tries to develop the week of June 24th, but we have plenty of time to watch that.... We'll have more on next week's situation over the weekend.
StormChaser : So glad that you came back! Don't let those certain few get under your skin. I so agree...keep your hand on the mouse and keep on scrolling! 
Next week's forecast For those asking, here is the forecast. I know a lot of you have messaged/tagged me but I had to back away for a while. I'm not looking for a pat on the back for posting about weather (why would I when #1 anyone can do it and #2 I love it so much) but I'm also not going to sit and be **** on either. The majority of you keep scrolling if weather isn't your thing (which I GREATLY appreciate) but on that day people were coming out of the woodwork on here (and then later it continued on social media) I can take being told I'm wrong but damn. It's just not worth what that type of BS does to my mental health so I logged off. 🤷â€â™€ï¸ Yes, I'm ok & I'm sober. â¤ï¸ All I ask is that you don't care to read about the weather, or you feel the need to criticize my weather posts, please just move on. Please. ......................................... Anywho - back to the ⛈ï¸âš¡ðŸŒ€â˜” This is a pretty sloppy forecast for a lot of reasons (now we have AI in play with weather forecasts) but the bottom like is: *The tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts will.
*Right now, the uncertainty comes in the form of rainfall totals. Will we see 2" of rain or will we see 6" of rain? *As of today (Friday) that part is still unknown but thankfully the forecast does NOT have a tropical system on our another website week. ........ From Space City Weather: Details Continue To Evolve On Next Week's Rain In Houston With A Focus Now On Midweek Matt Lanza · Friday, June 14, 2024 7:29 AM In brief: *After a quiet weekend, rain chances pick back up Monday and Tuesday before potentially heavier and more widespread rain on Wednesday and Thursday.
*Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible. Right out of the gate, we want to make sure people understand that next week's weather is being driven by two entities: -The first is the potential tropical system in the Bay of Campeche, which will NOT directly impact us. -The second will be the heavy rainfall on the north side, tangentially associated with it, that will impact us. The latter continues to give us some forecast headaches, which we'll explain below. TODAY AND SATURDAY: No issues are expected with plentiful sunshine. SUNDAY: For now, we expect much the same for Sunday, though a few extra clouds could begin to sneak in for the second half of the day, along with an isolated shower or downpour. MONDAY & TUESDAY: *We expect scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though it's a bit soon to pin down exactly where these will be most likely.
*Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours.
*This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees. âœ³ï¸ WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: âž¡ï¸ We are beginning to see a decent model agreement that Tuesday night, Wednesday, and early Thursday will feature our highest rain chances, and with that will likely come some heavy rainfall.
âž¡ï¸ I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding.
âž¡ï¸ The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs.
âž¡ï¸ Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast.
âž¡ï¸ While our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall. âž¡ï¸ One other possibility in this scenario is that a lot of rain falls at the immediate coast +or offshore) which ends up depriving inland areas of moisture.
âž¡ï¸ There is at least a chance that we will see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston. Things should hopefully quiet down later Thursday and Friday, regardless. BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM: We continue to see about a 50/50 shot that a tropical system develops in the Bay of Campeche next week.
*As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week.
*While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast. *Beyond this, there may be another sloppy system that tries to develop the week of June 24th, but we have plenty of time to watch that.... We'll have more on next week's situation over the weekend.
*Right now, the uncertainty comes in the form of rainfall totals. Will we see 2" of rain or will we see 6" of rain?
*Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will NOT directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible.
*Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours.
*This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees.
âž¡ï¸ I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding.
âž¡ï¸ The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs.
âž¡ï¸ Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast.
âž¡ï¸ While our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall.
âž¡ï¸ There is at least a chance that we will see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston.
*As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week.
*While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast.
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