Beryl - FRI 4AM UPDATE PG 10

eighteen : That orange line depicts how I am in life.

Forecast for Hurricane Beryl continues to trend south of HoustonJuly 3, 2024 at 4:31 pm by Eric BergerIn brief:
*The forecast for Hurricane Beryl and Houston remains more or less on track, which is to say the storm is still expected to go far enough south that it will not produce serious wind and surge impacts in Houston.
*We continue to watch the possibility of tropical rain next week.*Just a quick update to point out that our forecast from this morning on Hurricane Beryl, which currently as 140 mph sustained winds and is lashing Jamaica, is more or less on point.
*In fact, the data we've seen today from our most-trusted models continues to provide confidence in a track predicted by the National Hurricane Center.
*Their outlook brings a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane to the northern Mexico coast, 50 to 100 miles south of Texas, on Sunday evening or Monday morning.*We are still four to five days out in terms of a track forecast, so there are no absolutes here but the fact that we've seen a convergence in modeling, particularly in a track forecast from both the European and GFS models, gives me further confidence that Beryl, with its winds and seas, will likely NOT be much of a factor in Houston's weather next week.*There is still the potential for heavy rainfall, particularly during the Monday through Wednesday timeframe.
*My sense is that the most likely scenario is that much of our region will pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with higher bullseyes.
*I do not have as much confidence in the precipitation forecast, and certainly we cannot preclude the possibility of intense tropical rainfall and flooding in the Houston metro area. For now, however, we have no plans of issuing an alert on our flood scale. We'll continue to monitor things, of course.*The bottom line is that Beryl is probably going south, and making a final landfall in northern Mexico. *There will be some impacts for South Texas, including the possibility of inland flooding.
*As ever with tropical weather, forecasts can change. *We're just getting closer to the point where we can definitely say they won't in regard to Beryl and Houston.

HURRICANE BERYL
THURSDAY 4AM UPDATE 🌀 CATEGORY 3
🌀 130 MPH WINDS
🌀 150 MPH GUSTSFORECAST: 🌀 We are still four to five days out in terms of an actual track forecast, so there are no absolutes here, BUT the fact that we've seen a convergence in modeling (particularly in a track forecast from both the European and GFS models) gives confidence that Beryl, with its winds and seas, will likely NOT be much of a factor in Houston's weather next week.🌀 There is still the potential for heavy rainfall, particularly during the Monday through Wednesday timeframe.
🌀 Our region will pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with higher bullseye areas but rainfall totals are still very uncertain.
-Flooding issues cannot be ruled out yet. PREDICTED LANDFALL:
🌀 WHERE: Northern Mexico coast; 50 to 100 miles SOUTH of Texas.
🌀 WHEN: Sunday evening or Monday morning.

I just want rain! If that Florida high gets even a tiny stronger we're very likely to see rain. Right?

Ruger5 :
No- the high would need to weaken and move East. If it got stronger and expanded it would push the hurricane even further South

Labslady : Well that makes sense. Boy did I misunderstand. Texas is still very much in play as we watch for what that high does and what the open waters of the gulf do. The smaller the cane the harder to predict Im hearing.Sounds like the podcast I heard was hype. Space City says Houston won't be in play😩

Ruger5 :
Yea all the legit sites are in agreement that landfall will be Mexico or The border.

7/4/24 AMHURRICANE BERYL
CATEGORY 3
120 MPH WINDS
140 MPH GUSTS Beryl heading for the Yucatán and weakening *Overall the cloud pattern of Beryl is becoming increasingly disrupted by wind shear and the pressure is rising and winds decreasing and additional weakening into a tropical storm while crossing the Yucatán is likely.
*There has been little change in the track reasoning and confidence continues to increase Beryl will move toward NE MX/S TX with a landfall early Monday.
*The NHC track is in good agreement with the consensus envelop that has shown little deviation in the last 24 hrs*Beryl looks to re-intensify once in the Gulf…how long it takes to rebuild the inner core will play a role in the intensity when Beryl reaches the western Gulf coast.
*Current indications suggest a minimal hurricane, but Beryl could be a bit stronger given fairly decent conditions aloft.*Widespread rains are expected into next week with Beryl interacting with a trough over TX, where the heaviest rains fall remains in question. *Residents in Deep South Texas up to Kingsville need to be closely monitoring Beryl and have hurricane plans and supplies ready.

StormChaser :
Looks like NHC move the cone a tad North. Maybe W Houston will get some rain??

As #Beryl races toward the Yucatan, we try to narrow the possibilities for Texas. We expect a landfall near the RGV Sunday night, with impacts for much of the S TX coast & Coastal Bend. Beryl transitions to flooding/rain threat next week in S Texas. More: theeyewall.com/beryl -racing-toward-the-y ucatan-with-eyes-on- northeast-mexic

eighteen :
I hate it for them but glad it may not be coming to my beach. DH has been working on preserving our home should it come but it is stressful knowing your retirement might be blowing away.

ladybeachbum : It's nice out here, beautiful day. No worries.

HURRICANE BERYL - 2PM UPDATE🌀 CATEGORY 2
🌀 WINDS 120PH SUSTAINED
🌀 140MPH GUSTS
🌀 MOVEMENT: WNW @ AT 18 MPH.NOT good for South Texas including Brownsville, South Padre Island, Harlingen & Port Isabel. The LATEST update:

*A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, taking the core of Beryl away from the Cayman Islands through this afternoon and then over the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday.*Weakening is forecast during the next day or two, though. *Beryl is forecasted to remain a hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.*That said, all eyes are on what Beryl "could" do once in the Gulf of Mexico - and for the Texas Coast. *How will Beryl interact with Yucatan Peninsula? -Will it completely fall apart and emerge into the Gulf as a tropical storm?
-Or does it have little to no impact to where it enters the Gulf as a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane?We have to wait and see....until then, it's still a guessing game. ................TRENDS: *LAST NIGHT VS TODAY shows a more northern track. Northern track= closer to Texas. CURRENT TRACK FORECAST:*Beryl has a history of trending more on the north side of its track - that we do know - and presently trying to build another eyewall.
*As you can see, we are on the edge of the cone now.
*While I do think it will stay away from Houston, it wouldn't surprise me if it came in more on the north side of the cone, near or south of Corpus.