Beryl - FRI 4AM UPDATE PG 10

StormChaser :
Thank you for All your reports, Beryl has been eating his Wheaties as well as Everything in sight!🥹🥲

What comes after Jamaica for Beryl?*The main near term concern is for the folks in Jamaica and the Caymans.
*Beyond that, the forecast is contingent on a number of factors.
*Over the last 48 hours, we've seen a slight northward shift in Beryl's forecast track as it comes west.*This has implications for the Yucatan and perhaps the Gulf as well. Why is Beryl trending more north? *For one, exploding into a category 5 storm allows it to gain some added latitude.
*Secondly, the U.S. pattern has changed somewhat. If you look at how the European ensemble's 6 to 10 day forecast has changed in the last 48 hours, the tendency has been for the trough over the Central U.S. to strengthen, thus weakening the ridge of high pressure in the South.But there's a lot of nuance to this. ❗ For one, if Beryl does weaken as expected, this would have only a modest impact on the final track, keeping it south across the Yucatan and into Mexico.
❗ If Beryl does stay stronger than forecast or somehow intensifies as it comes west into the Gulf, it would be more apt to "feel" the stronger trough and come north.
*You can see this in the Euro ensemble where stronger outcomes are mostly skewed north and weaker outcomes are mostly skewed south.*There's a reason we have been apt to not speculate on what would happen to Beryl as it came west, rather trying to focus on what would impact Beryl. *These changes offer a wrinkle.
*Should you worry on the Texas or Louisiana coasts? No, but you'll want to keep an eye on this.
*For one, there seems to be a fair bit of support for somewhat hostile upper air conditions in the Gulf when Beryl arrives, so there's no guarantee this will just explode when it gets there.*That said, we're operating in a very odd world right now.
*Gulf of Mexico water temps have drifted under record levels thankfully, but it's still warmer than normal overall.
*I don't want to overpromise anything at this point. The best we can tell people to do is continue watching. *If Beryl makes it to the northern Mexico, Texas, or Louisiana coasts, the impacts would probably begin late Saturday night or Sunday.

StormChaser: Thanks for all the updates. I wouldn't mind some rain out of this but certainly don't want a strong hurricane.
I don't envy meteorologist right now. That sentence operating in a very odd world right now says it all.

Labslady : We were ok the first week with open windows. Second week was brutal, lol.

From Frank Billingsley....Even though he retired on Friday. ❤️Below is an upper level map (500mb which is around 18000ft) and those wind barbs are steering currents. When IKE hit Galveston a similar High was positioned in Georgia. BERYL is forecast to be further south than IKE was and those steering currents could take it into south Texas. However, BERYL'S position can change to be more northward which would put the storm, or its effects, closer to us. Bottom line, don't let your guard down. The KPRC2 storm team is on it so be sure to tune in this weekend even though it's the holiday and you're going to be busy!

StormChaser :
I just shared that on Facebook. I am so glad FBillingsley is still keeping up informed--even in retirement.

Tuesday afternoon 18z spaghetti models on tropicaltidbits.com. Some flip-flopped more south & some still into Texas. Timing would be this weekend. www.spaghettimodels.com

Weathergirl5 : Me too!!! I went to his page hoping he had posted 😂😂😂

StormChaser :
I know. He showed up in my feed since we are friends. I was so happy to see the post.

Weathergirl5 : ……..I am only wanting rain……..a few rumbles of Thunder…….maybe a few hours of exciting wind gusts……….excited for the possibilities 🙏

Ruger5 :
I guess it depends on how strong those wind gusts are. We don't need another repeat of the May wind gusts!

Beryl looks as though it might be heading for the US Mexico border.

Weathergirl5 : Wind gusts enough to make the trees tango…… Billowy dark clouds, claps of thunder and good soaking rains. I'll take two days worth please and thank you. Not looking for power outages or downed trees. Just a good ol fashioned summer storm.