SCW tropics update

SCW tropics update I personally think it's too early to put this kind of prediction out but here we are. Just remember they said the same with Beryl....🚨 I DO agree that it's not going to be a major hurricane but I think its still too early to say we'll have little effects from it. We'll see. 🤞.................While Tropical Depression 2 lurks in the Gulf, we currently expect minimal impacts in Houston. Matt Lanza · Monday, July 20, 2026 5:43 AM👉In brief: *Tropical Depression 2 may become a tropical storm later today or tomorrow, but for Houston at this point we are not expecting significant impacts, anticipating that it will fall apart before arriving here.
*Still, we encourage folks to monitor the forecast over the next couple days in case anything should change. 👉Tropical Depression 2
Let's get right down to business -*Tropical Depression 2 formed yesterday in the eastern Gulf.
*Over the next couple days, it's expected to drift westward, becoming a tropical storm.
*Now, I'll be the first to tell you that looking at this thing on satellite this morning, it's not exactly looking healthy.*And, in fact, the vast majority of tropical modeling, as well as Google Deep Mind's 1,000 member forecast ensemble keep TD 2's intensity at or below middle grade tropical storm levels. In other words, we do not believe this is going to be a repeat of Beryl.
*Interestingly, if you look at the various ensembles, you also see a lot of them "losing" Tropical Depression 2 before it gets to Texas.*In other words, we are seeing the bulk of the modeling say that TD 2 is going to run its course before getting to Texas.
*The 5 to 10 percent or so that survive west of Louisiana are the ones coming to Texas.
*So it may look as if the modeling is all pointed right at Texas, but in reality, that's mainly saying the remnant is.
*And when you look at the NHC forecast at the top, you'll notice the intensity is dropped to depression when it makes it to Texas.
*Frankly, that may be generous given what we see this morning. It may be that this system ends up arriving as a shell of itself in Texas.
*There are still a handful of model ensembles that track the system a little farther south, a scenario we won't take off the table.
*In those cases, it's likely that the intensity of TD 2, or Bertha, would be capped by wind shear.
*And if that doesn't do it, dry air that surrounds this thing on all sides probably will.👉So what does it mean here in Houston?*As of today, impacts are expected to be minimal.
*Wind impacts at this point would be tropical depression or less.
*Marine impacts would be for some minor coastal flooding perhaps or just slightly higher tides.
*And rainfall impacts would also be minimal, with just a slightly increased chance of showers on Thursday or Friday perhaps.*That's as of right this moment. Forecasts can and do change, and we encourage you to continue monitoring the forecast as the week progresses.
*If something notable changes this afternoon, we'll chime in later today.