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Current Euro Model Run at Six Days

Current Euro Model Run at Six Days

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by: analogkid Active Indicator LED Icon 3 OP 
~ 7 years ago   Aug 23, '16 3:19pm  
Hard to put too much stock in anything beyond five days, but the Euro model has been pretty consistent with output on a tropical wave currently termed 99L currently approaching the Lesser Antilles. This could be Hermine very soon, or it could hit the high ground of some of the nearby islands and disintegrate. At any rate the model puts it across FL and into the eastern GoM at day six, or next Monday. Projected steering would "likely" not bring it towards TX, but at the very least it is worth checking in on over the next few days. 
 
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donnatella Active Indicator LED Icon 13 Forum Moderator
~ 7 years ago   Aug 23, '16 3:24pm  
Time to stock up on the essentials:
 
Pop-Tarts
Slim Jims
Beef Jerky
Wine and beer
 
Those with trucks, get the tarps ready to make your own redneck swimming pools.
 
I think that just about covers it.
 
Edited to say I need someone who has electrician skills. My neighbor purchased a whole-whine generator and we need to tap into that to keep the wine cellar running steady. 4951
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Jpgurl Active Indicator LED Icon 18
~ 7 years ago   Aug 23, '16 3:40pm  
Hard to put too much stock in anything beyond five days, but the Euro model has been pretty consistent with output on a tropical wave currently termed 99L currently approaching the Lesser Antilles. This could be Hermine very soon, or it could hit the high ground of some of the nearby islands and disintegrate. At any rate the model puts it across FL and into the eastern GoM at day six, or next Monday. Projected steering would "likely" not bring it towards TX, but at the very least it is worth checking in on over the next few days. 
 
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@analogkid: Thnx!!! I always enjoy your weather statements!!!i go on spaghetti models daily to check out the storm forecasts.
 
@Donnatella- beer and wine need to move to number 1 priority 😜- BEFORE @ BooBear gets all the wine !! ( you know we love you Boo!!
4951
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Chrisinkingwood Active Indicator LED Icon 8
~ 7 years ago   Aug 23, '16 8:51pm  
ime to stock up on the essentials:
 
@donnatella: @Ray, time to get some pork rinds!
4951
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Jpgurl Active Indicator LED Icon 18
~ 7 years ago   Aug 24, '16 6:54am  
@analogkid-what do you think of This AM's run?? Will it survive Hispanolia and FL to stir up into something in the Gulf? 4951
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Stealth83 Active Indicator LED Icon 16
~ 7 years ago   Aug 24, '16 8:47am  
Removed By Request 4951
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analogkid Active Indicator LED Icon 3 OP 
~ 7 years ago   Aug 24, '16 8:53am  
@JpgurlI think it is likely to miss Hispanolia for the most part.  The system is not stacked yet, with the approximate mid level center being a bit more to the NW of the low level center. This may/should help to pull it just north of Hispanolia. Flight recon will go into it again today for a better look.  Latest Euro model run trends stronger with east coast high pressure, which would tend to steer a storm, already in the Gulf, more to the western GoM.  This could, in turn, put LA/TX more in play.  At the very least, there's much credible dynamics to support this system getting to the eastern GoM in the next week. 4951
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shodan66 Active Indicator LED Icon 15
~ 7 years ago   Aug 24, '16 9:20am  
Latest Euro model run trends stronger with east coast high pressure, which would tend to steer a storm, already in the Gulf, more to the western GoM.
 
@analogkid: The Euro model has been pretty spot on in recent history.  Given that the gulf is a hot bath right now, this could get fun before it's over. 
4951
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analogkid Active Indicator LED Icon 3 OP 
~ 7 years ago   Aug 24, '16 9:39am  

- - - - - - - -
>> Latest Euro model run trends stronger with east coast high pressure, which would tend to steer a storm, already in the Gulf, more to the western GoM.
 
@analogkid: The Euro model has been pretty spot on in recent history.  Given that the gulf is a hot bath right now, this could get fun before it's over. 
 
@shodan66: Yeah, since the update to the GFS physics, it has performed pretty poorly, especially in short term; long term output seems to have been improved however.  It has performed abysmally with 99L.  Euro has, for the most part, been spot on.  Emoticonrogged location from Euro is pretty much right where its central vorticity is located today.  Seems to have a good handle on it.  First Air Force recon is airborne now.  St. Croix has seen 24 hour pressure falls of about 4 mb, which lends some credence to TS genesis.
Still, there are some factors to overcome over the next 24-36 hours for this wave to further develop.  TS evolution seems seldom as pretty as the models depict. 4951
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shodan66 Active Indicator LED Icon 15
~ 7 years ago   Aug 24, '16 11:27am  
Dr. Masters over at Wunderground posted about 99L at the top of the hour:"The ECMWF continues to bring 99L across or near South Florida on Sunday or Monday and moves it onward into the Gulf of Mexico. More than 90% of the 50 ECMWF ensemble members from 00Z Wednesday--and all four members of the “high probability cluster” (those that performed the best on 99L during the preceding 24 hours)--bring 99L into the Gulf. The system could make landfall next week anywhere from Texas to the Florida Panhandle, according to various ECMWF ensemble members."and then farther down the article:"The bottom line: it may well be another day, or several, before 99L manages to become a tropical storm or hurricane (assuming it does). If 99L does intensify by this weekend, there is still the possibility for tropical storm or even hurricane-level impacts in Florida. We also have the chance of a potentially serious hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico at some point next week."I cherry picked those paragraphs.  Full entry can be read here:  https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3396 4951
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Txbutterfly Active Indicator LED Icon 12
~ 7 years ago   Aug 24, '16 11:38am  
OK, this crap best not go near Boston and New England, I am on vacation next week and driving up the coast of NE from Boston to Maine, I do not need any rain to ruin it.  Selfish I know, but send the rain to CA where they need it to put out fires. 4951
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shodan66 Active Indicator LED Icon 15
~ 7 years ago   Aug 24, '16 11:44am  
OK, this crap best not go near Boston and New England, I am on vacation next week and driving up the coast of NE from Boston to Maine, I do not need any rain to ruin it.  Selfish I know, but send the rain to CA where they need it to put out fires.
 
@Txbutterfly: Nothing is putting it in that direction at all.  All of the models have it hitting southern Florida and either entering the gulf, dying out completely, or becoming a fish storm with Gaston out in the Atlantic.  
4951
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MarT Active Indicator LED Icon 9
~ 7 years ago   Aug 24, '16 11:47am  
Can you all look into the crystal ball and give a rough time period when it could hit TX, if it comes this way?  I've got a road trip to Colo this weekend arriving back in KW on next Wed.  I'll keep watching, adjusting as necessary.    4951
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imadrummer2k Active Indicator LED Icon 3
~ 7 years ago   Aug 24, '16 11:57am  
OK, this crap best not go near Boston and New England, I am on vacation next week and driving up the coast of NE from Boston to Maine, I do not need any rain to ruin it.  Selfish I know, but send the rain to CA where they need it to put out fires.
 
@Txbutterfly: These systems are hard to predict so far out, but I can pretty much tell you that there is a 100% chance that it's not going to hit Boston....
4951
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Maisey1 Active Indicator LED Icon 9
~ 7 years ago   Aug 24, '16 12:02pm  
OK, this crap best not go near Boston and New England, I am on vacation next week and driving up the coast of NE from Boston to Maine, I do not need any rain to ruin it.  Selfish I know, but send the rain to CA where they need it to put out fires.
 
@Txbutterfly: We did that drive last month and hit some really heavy rain between Boston and Portland, ME. Thankfully we took the Concord Coach up to Bangor so we didn't have to drive in that mess. Hopefully the weather cooperates for you! Where is Maine are you going?
4951
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ET Active Indicator LED Icon 17
~ 7 years ago   Aug 24, '16 1:52pm  
OK, this crap best not go near Boston and New England, I am on vacation next week and driving up the coast of NE from Boston to Maine, I do not need any rain to ruin it.  Selfish I know, but send the rain to CA where they need it to put out fires.
 
@Txbutterfly: Cool, I'll be up that way in the near future. Traveling that coast is a lot of fun. 
4951
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