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>> Latest Euro model run trends stronger with east coast high pressure, which would tend to steer a storm, already in the Gulf, more to the western GoM.
@analogkid: The Euro model has been pretty spot on in recent history. Given that the gulf is a hot bath right now, this could get fun before it's over.
@shodan66: Yeah, since the update to the GFS physics, it has performed pretty poorly, especially in short term; long term output seems to have been improved however. It has performed abysmally with 99L. Euro has, for the most part, been spot on.  
rogged location from Euro is pretty much right where its central vorticity is located today. Seems to have a good handle on it. First Air Force recon is airborne now. St. Croix has seen 24 hour pressure falls of about 4 mb, which lends some credence to TS genesis.
Still, there are some factors to overcome over the next 24-36 hours for this wave to further develop. TS evolution seems seldom as pretty as the models depict. 4951